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   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1138 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026   
      
   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few thunderstorms will be possible across southeast Florida on   
   Thursday, however, severe weather is not expected.   
      
   ... Synopsis ...   
      
   A strong mid-level short-wave trough originating across the Canadian   
   Prairies will dig southeast toward the US Great Lakes on Thursday.   
   This will maintain broadly cyclonic flow across much of the United   
   States. In the wake of this trough, increasingly confluent mid-level   
   flow will maintain a strong arctic surface high as it begins to move   
   south into the Plains.   
      
   ... Southeast Florida ...   
      
   Modest convergence along a remnant surface boundary may realize a   
   weakly unstable environment to support showers and perhaps a few   
   weak thunderstorms. Although the bulk of the activity should remain   
   offshore in the Atlantic, a couple of lightning strikes will be   
   possible across portions of far southeast Florida.   
      
   ... Southern California ...   
      
   A vigorous closed low over the eastern Pacific will continue to dig   
   southeast, just off the California coast. The combination of modest   
   large-scale ascent downstream of the nose of a cyclonically curved   
   mid-level jet, cold mid-level temperatures, and onshore flow may   
   support a couple of lightning strikes within any orographically   
   enhanced shower. However confidence in this potential remains too   
   low to warrant graphical depiction at this time.   
      
   ..Marsh/Weinman.. 01/22/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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