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   FOUS11 KWBC 212105   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   405 PM EST Wed Jan 21 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 00Z Sun Jan 25 2026   
      
      
   ***Major Winter Storm To Bring Significant Impacts To The South   
    Friday Through This Weekend, Expanding Up The East Coast Saturday   
    Night Into Sunday***   
      
   ...Southern Rockies, Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Mid-South,   
   Southern & Central Appalachians, & Mid-Atlantic...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   The ingredients for the impending major winter storm begin to take   
   shape Thursday night. A broad upper trough located off Baja   
   California will work in tandem with a ridge axis near Mexico to   
   direct a rich plume of tropical East Pacific moisture into the   
   Southern Rockies and Plains. At the same time, an arctic front   
   ushers in the coldest temperatures this season across the Great=20   
   Plains with a highly anomalous dome of arctic high pressure=20   
   building in over the North Central U.S.. As high pressure rushes=20   
   south, easterly upslope flow induced between the high pressure to=20   
   the north and lower pressure near California will cause upslope=20   
   flow into the higher terrain of the CO and NM Rockies with lighter=20   
   snowfall in the central High Plains. WPC probabilities show high=20   
   chances (>70%) for snowfall above 9,000ft in the CO/NM Rockies=20   
   through Saturday afternoon.   
      
   Precipitation will blossom over much of KS, OK, and TX Friday, starting   
   as rain across much of TX initially, but look for precipitation to   
   transition to snow over KS, northern OK, and the TX Panhandle by=20   
   Friday afternoon and evening. Farther south, strengthening low-=20   
   level WAA will over-run the incoming sub-freezing layer in the=20   
   lowest 2,000ft of the atmosphere from West Texas to as far east as=20   
   the Mid-South. Sleet will become more prevalent over the Red River=20   
   Valley, north-central AR, and into western TN, while freezing rain   
   is the primary preip type from the TX Hill Country through the=20   
   ArkLaTex and as far east as the TN Valley. Heavy sleet is possible   
   in some of these areas with multiple inches of sleet possible   
   through Saturday. The slow progression of the upper trough over=20   
   Baja California and the bitterly cold arctic air-mass anchored=20   
   over the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS is a recipe ripe for=20   
   prolonged freezing rain from central TX to as far east as the=20   
   southern Appalachians through 00Z Sunday. WPC probabilities show=20   
   concerningly high probabilities (50-70%) for ice accumulations=20   
   through 00Z Sunday over one-quarter inch. The areas of greatest=20   
   concern are over the ArkLaTx, southern AR, northern LA, northern=20   
   MS/AL, and southern TN where low-to-moderate chances (30-50%)=20   
   exist for over one-half inch of ice. While this discussion is=20   
   geared to the short term (ending 00Z Sunday) the ice in all these=20   
   areas are forecast to continue through Saturday night and even into   
   Sunday. There is great concern for extensive tree damage and power   
   outages from central TX on east through the Mid-South and into the   
   Southern Appalachians into Sunday.   
      
   Farther north, the air-mass through the depth of the atmospheric   
   column remains cold enough to support all snow from the Central   
   Plains on east through the Ozarks and across northern TN and much   
   of KY beginning Friday evening in the Plains, then into the TN/OH   
   Valleys Saturday morning. By midday and into Saturday afternoon,   
   periods of snow will reach the southern and central Appalachians   
   and potentially the VA/NC Piedmont. Snowfall rates topping 1"/hr=20   
   are likely in areas just north of the strongest 850-700mb FGEN=20   
   zone and vertical velocities are highest in a highly saturated=20   
   dendritic growth zone in the Central Plains and OH Valley. The=20   
   very cold temperatures over KS on east through MS and into the OH=20   
   Valley will cause SLRs to range anywhere from between 12-18:1 with=20   
   the higher SLRs over KS. WPC probabilities through 00Z Sunday=20   
   depict high chances (>70%) for >4" of snow over central and=20   
   southern KS, much of northern OK, the TX Panhandle, and into the=20   
   Ozarks of northern AR and southern MO. The best chances for >8" of=20   
   snowfall reside over the Ozarks where moderate chance probabilities   
   (40-60%) are present.=20   
      
   Similar to the ice, the snow will by no means be over given the=20   
   extensive plume of anomalous moisture emanating out of the East=20   
   Pacific. By Saturday night, southerly flow out of the Gulf will=20   
   continue to direct copious amounts of moisture into the eastern   
   U.S., resulting in a highly disruptive and dangerous winter storm   
   from the Mid-South to the Mid-Atlantic. WPC continues to issue Key   
   Messages for this winter storm and a link to them can be found   
   below.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A Hudson Bay vortex pivoting south through Ontario will sustain the   
   seemingly endless cyclonic flow over the Great Lakes and their   
   usual snow belts. 500mb heights associated with this powerful upper   
   low are quite anomalous (below the 1st climatological percentile   
   in southern Ontario Thursday into Friday night). WPC probabilities   
   highlight high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >4" over the   
   northern tier of the U.P., western MI, along the Chautauqua Ridge   
   on north into western NY, and down wind of Lake Ontario over the   
   Tug Hill. The Tug Hill most notably will continue to receive very   
   heavy snow over the next few days highlighted by WPC 72-hour   
   probabilities sporting high chances (>70%) in the Tug Hill. A   
   growing concern is for snow squalls over the Northeast. WPC   
   initiated Key Messages for what appear to be multiple rounds of   
   snow squalls from western NY on east through New England, with=20   
   some squalls possible as far south as northern PA. The final round   
   of squalls are expected on Friday as an arctic front traverses the   
   region, causing steep lapse rates and focused vertical ascent. For   
   more details on the snow squall threat in the Northeast through   
   Friday, please refer to our Key Messages.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20   
    Key Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4leUoWpjIV7yE2h8DceGN34RPg1d4yvNkmbTFjbw31Qzn=   
   tpehh7jECz3HdwJRagEcw4-6zFuFEKoWCJC7xOHFH7tjJY$=20   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4leUoWpjIV7yE2h8DceGN34RPg1d4yvNkmbTFjbw31Qzn=   
   tpehh7jECz3HdwJRagEcw4-6zFuFEKoWCJC7xOHAW-kv9A$=20   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_3.png__;!!DZ3fjg!4leUoWpjIV7yE2h8DceGN34RPg1d4yvNkmbTFjbw31Qzn=   
   tpehh7jECz3HdwJRagEcw4-6zFuFEKoWCJC7xOHnzl7X1Y$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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