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   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0127 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026   
      
   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Friday   
   through Friday night across parts of central Texas into the southern   
   Great Plains Red River Valley.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate that a confluent mid-level regime will be maintained   
   across and east of the Rockies, downstream of amplified split flow   
   across the central/eastern Pacific into far western North America.   
   Although the center of initially prominent, cold surface ridging may   
   begin to weaken some while slowly shifting east of the Missouri   
   Valley through the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, the   
   leading edge of the Arctic air is forecast to surge southward across   
   the southern Great Plains, through much of central and southwestern   
   Texas by late Friday night.   
      
   The front is also forecast to advance further offshore of the   
   southern Mid Atlantic, but slower southward through the eastern Gulf   
   Coast states and lower Mississippi Valley, beneath a broad building   
   mid-level ridge across much of the south central and southeastern   
   U.S., downstream of mid-level troughing digging across the   
   international border into the northern U.S. Rockies/Great Plains and   
   a short wave trough emerging from the southern mid-latitude eastern   
   Pacific.   
      
   There remains notable spread concerning the eastward acceleration of   
   the latter perturbation, generally toward Baja, during this period.   
   However, guidance continues to generally indicate increasing   
   low-level moistening within strengthening southerly downstream flow,   
   across and north of the lower Rio Grande Valley and Texas coastal   
   areas.   
      
   ...Southern Great Plains/Red River Valley...   
   Although mid-level lapse rates are not likely to steepen   
   appreciably, forecast soundings suggest that lower/mid-tropospheric   
   thermal and moisture advection may lead to weak destabilization by   
   late Friday into Friday night, mostly above the southward advancing   
   cold air.  It appears that this will become increasingly sufficient   
   for widely scattered to scattered convective development capable of   
   producing lightning, perhaps as far north as portions of southern   
   Oklahoma by 12Z Saturday.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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