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   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 211704   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 211702   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1102 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026   
      
   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Aside from the risk for a few weak thunderstorms near southeastern   
   Florida coastal areas, potential for thunderstorm development   
   appears low across the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   A vigorous short wave trough emanating from the Canadian Arctic   
   latitudes is forecast to dig southeast of the international border,   
   across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, and   
   contribute to the maintenance of larger-scale mid-level troughing   
   across the northern U.S. Great Plains through northern and middle   
   Atlantic Seaboard.  Beneath an increasingly confluent regime in its   
   wake, models continue to indicate that a rather prominent, cold   
   surface ridge will build southeastward along an axis across the   
   middle/lower Missouri Valley into lower Ohio Valley by late Thursday   
   night.   
      
   It appears that a preceding surface frontal zone will stall and   
   perhaps strengthen across the Carolinas through northern portions of   
   the Gulf Coast states into southern Great Plains.  Another is   
   expected to slowly weaken across the Florida Peninsula and northern   
   Gulf Basin, as much of the southern tier of the U.S. continues to   
   come under the increasing influence of westerlies emanating from the   
   mid- to subtropical eastern Pacific.   
      
   Downstream of fairly sharp building mid-level ridging across the   
   eastern mid-latitude Pacific, models have come in better agreement   
   concerning a digging mid-level trough and embedded low offshore of   
   the southern California/northern Baja Pacific coast.  It is becoming   
   more certain that the cyclonic circulation and colder temperatures   
   associated with an elongating mid-level cold core will generally   
   remain offshore of the southern California, before turning inland   
   across northern Baja after 12Z Friday.   
      
   ...Southern California...   
   Models continue to indicate coldest offshore mid-level temperatures   
   at a somewhat modest -22 to -24C around 500 mb.  However, based on   
   the latest Rapid Refresh and NAM forecast soundings, weak   
   destabilization supportive of short-lived weak thunderstorm   
   development may not be entirely out of the question near coastal   
   areas, particularly where forcing for ascent is aided by orography   
   near the Transverse and perhaps Peninsular Ranges.  Certainty does   
   not yet appear high enough for the minimum 10 percent threshold, but   
   this will continue to be monitored.   
      
   ...Gulf Coast States...   
   Given the general tendency for warming mid-levels, and the lack of   
   both more substantive further low-level moistening off a slowly   
   modifying Gulf boundary layer and mid/upper support for ascent, the   
   risk for thunderstorm activity still appears minimal Thursday   
   through Thursday night.  The primary exception still appears near   
   southeastern Florida coastal areas, in response to increasing   
   boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, near developing   
   surface troughing and the remnant surface front, perhaps aided by   
   forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical   
   westerlies.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/21/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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