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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   137    
   AXNT20 KNHC 211016   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Wed Jan 21 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...    
      
   Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1030 mb    
   high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombian low is    
   supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore    
   Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the    
   middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts    
   eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia    
   to gale force at night through Thu morning. Rough seas are    
   forecast with these winds.    
      
   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the    
   National Hurricane Center at website:   
   https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
   for more details.   
      
   Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern    
   Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are    
   expected through today as abundant tropical moisture interacts    
   with a shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of    
   Honduras. Periods of heavy rainfall will continue through early    
   today in the Gulf and northern Honduras, where totals in excess    
   of 12 inches will be likely.    
      
   Please consult products from your local meteorological services    
   for additional information.    
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of    
   Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N24W. The    
   ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection    
   is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ between 17W-36W.   
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A strong surface ridge over the eastern United States forces    
   fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas east of   
   90E, including the Florida Straits. Moderate to fresh easterly    
   winds and moderate seas are found west of 90E to a line from    
   southern Texas to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico. Elsewhere, light to    
   gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent.   
      
   For the forecast, the fresh to strong northerly winds and    
   moderate to rough seas will persist through today. The next cold    
   front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night into Sat followed    
   by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Reinforcing high    
   pressure in the wake of the front, may bring gale conditions first   
   near Tampico, then near Veracruz on Mon.    
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy   
   Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale    
   Warning offshore Colombia.   
      
   A shearline extends from eastern Cuba to northern Honduras. Fresh   
   to strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail W of the    
   shearline and north of 17N. Outside of the south-central    
   Caribbean, fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate seas are   
   found off southern Hispaniola and NE Caribbean. Easterly swell is   
   reaching the Atlantic water passages of the NE Caribbean, allowing   
   for localized rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly    
   winds and moderate seas are evident.    
      
   For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United    
   States will continue to promote fresh to strong NE winds and    
   moderate to rough seas across the NW Caribbean through today.    
   These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into    
   northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall. A    
   surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across    
   the Leeward Islands late today, and over Puerto Rico on Thu,    
   likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase    
   the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms    
   over the islands and surrounding waters.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A stationary front enters the discussion waters near 31N63W and   
   continues to eastern Cuba. To the W of this front, a weakening   
   stationary front extends from 31N70W to 29N81W. Scattered showers   
   are noted near these boundaries. The pressure gradient between a    
   strong ridge over the eastern United States and the fronts    
   supports fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas W of   
   68W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an extensive    
   subtropical ridge SW of the Azores, forcing fresh to near gale-    
   force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas south of 27N    
   and east of 67W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate   
   seas are prevalent. Divergence aloft east of the Lesser Antilles    
   sustains a large area of scattered showers and isolated    
   thunderstorms, especially from 14N to 20N and between 45W and 57W.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will    
   continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas    
   east of 67W through Thu. The stationary front in the W Atlantic will   
   lift N and gradually dissipate through Thu, while the weakening    
   front W of the aforementioned one will dissipate today. The    
   pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will continue to support    
   fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the    
   Straits of Florida through today.   
      
   $$   
   ERA   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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