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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 201903   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 201902   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0102 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026   
      
   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Aside from the risk for a couple of thunderstorms near southern   
   Florida Atlantic coastal areas, potential for thunderstorms appears   
   minimal across much of the U.S. Thursday through Thursday night.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate that a significant short wave trough emanating from   
   the Arctic latitudes will continue digging across and southeast of   
   the central Canadian/U.S. border through this period, reinforcing   
   broad, cold mid-level troughing across the northern U.S. Great   
   Plains through middle and northern Atlantic Seaboard.  In lower   
   latitudes, flow is forecast to remain broadly cyclonic as far south   
   as the northern Gulf Basin, but with a continued slow/subtle warming   
   in mid-levels across much of the Gulf Coast states, downstream of a   
   slowly digging mid-level low offshore of the southern   
   California/northern Baja coast.  It appears that the modest and   
   compact mid-level cold core of this low will remain offshore through   
   at least this period, as a sharp upstream ridge builds a bit further   
   northward through the mid-latitude eastern Pacific.   
      
   Beneath this regime, it appears that the primary frontal zone may   
   remain quasi-stationary across the Carolinas through northern   
   portions of the eastern Gulf Coast states.  However, some further   
   southward advancement is possible across the Ark-La-Miss and central   
   Texas by late Thursday night, as a prominent cold surface ridge   
   continues to build along an axis across the Canadian Prairies   
   through middle and lower Missouri Valley.   
      
   Some further low-level moistening is possible to the south of this   
   front, off a slowly modifying Gulf and southwestern Atlantic   
   boundary layer.  However, beneath slowly warming mid-levels, with   
   weak mid/upper support for convective development, the risk for   
   thunderstorms appears limited Thursday through Thursday night.   
      
   ...Southern Florida...   
   A consensus of latest available model output, ranging from ECENS and   
   GEFS convective precipitation forecasts to NAM/Rapid Refresh   
   forecast soundings and NAM/RRFS convection allowing guidance,   
   suggests that at least minimum threshold thunderstorm probabilities   
   may become focused during this period in the vicinity of weak   
   surface troughing developing near southern Florida Atlantic coastal   
   areas.  This appears possible in response to increasing   
   boundary-layer destabilization and convergence, perhaps aided by   
   forcing associated with weak perturbations within the subtropical   
   westerlies.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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