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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   108 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026   
      
   Texas coast...   
   An area of moisture convergence/frontogenesis has been the focus=20   
   of showers trying to stream into the Middle TX Coast off the Gulf=20   
   of Mexico. The 0.5"+ an hour rain amounts have been focused off the   
   coast, along the lines of the output from the 12z HREF guidance.   
   With time, the RAP shows the flow veering in this area, showing   
   less of a surface focus for the convection with time. The 12z HREF=20   
   is focusing whatever heavy rain threat that exists just offshore of   
   Port O'Connor, mostly during the 16-20z time frame, before fading.   
   Local totals to 3" are expected just offshore. Even if this=20   
   activity were to unexpectedly drift ashore, the heavy rainfall risk   
   appears too isolated and too limited for a Marginal Risk area, so=20   
   left the graphic area-free.=20   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
   South Florida...   
   The best signal for heavy rainfall this period focuses near an=20   
   inverted trough sharpening along the South Florida coast,=20   
   as precipitable water values rise to 1.5" and instability tries to   
   move ashore from the Gulf Stream. The 12z HREF/06z REFS advertise   
   0.5"+ an hour amounts right at the end of the period Thursday=20   
   morning, with a 40%+ chance of 2"+ somewhere between coastal=20   
   Broward and Martin Counties. At the moment, the threat of flash=20   
   flooding here appears too isolated and too marginal for a Marginal=20   
   Risk to be depicted.   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   South Florida...   
   The best signal remains near South Florida Thursday morning where=20   
   enough moisture and instability appear to exist for locally heavy=20   
   rain. The guidance appears to drift this activity northward as the=20   
   low- level flow veers; convection is not expected to sit in any=20   
   particular location for too long. At the moment, the threat of=20   
   flash flooding here appears too isolated/marginal for a Marginal=20   
   Risk to be depicted.   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Roth   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tXLbLBiBWST4vMBln_lADJlIwPWE-z7cSBpSVsXaJpD=   
   0R1EjYG-HkXlt7SvwWV_dNkFb3_srILCthAD_Qk4HEJbh5g$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tXLbLBiBWST4vMBln_lADJlIwPWE-z7cSBpSVsXaJpD=   
   0R1EjYG-HkXlt7SvwWV_dNkFb3_srILCthAD_Qk4wPhe-Qs$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4tXLbLBiBWST4vMBln_lADJlIwPWE-z7cSBpSVsXaJpD=   
   0R1EjYG-HkXlt7SvwWV_dNkFb3_srILCthAD_Qk4Cb-dTiY$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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