TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168738.weather@1:2320/105 2dd77aa9   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS02 KWNS 201646   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 201645   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1045 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026   
      
   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity is possible Wednesday   
   into Wednesday evening across parts of southeastern Texas into the   
   lower Mississippi Valley.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   While an initially prominent mid-level ridge, centered offshore of   
   the Pacific Northwest/British Columbia coast into Alaska, will   
   undergo more notable weakening through this period, models indicate   
   that large-scale downstream troughing will generally be maintained   
   across much of interior and eastern North America.  It appears that   
   this will be reinforced by a strong short wave trough emerging from   
   the Canadian Arctic latitudes, before digging around the western   
   periphery of Hudson Bay, toward the central international border   
   area.  This is forecast to be accompanied by modest cyclogenesis   
   across and northeast of the Great Lakes, and a more notable   
   reinforcing cold intrusion into the Ohio and Missouri Valleys, in   
   the wake of a preceding one reaching the Mid Atlantic, northern Gulf   
   Coast states and Texas Gulf coastal plain by 12Z Wednesday   
      
   At the same time, it still appears that much of the southern tier of   
   the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing influence of   
   westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes   
   of the eastern Pacific.  Within this regime, a notable developing   
   mid-level low is forecast to slowly dig toward the southern   
   California/northern Baja coast, downstream of a building short wave   
   ridge over the mid-latitude eastern Pacific.  While forecast   
   soundings suggest that this may be preceded by an inland spreading   
   band of weak convection, associated with mid/high-level moisture   
   return from the lower latitude eastern Pacific, the modest and   
   relatively compact mid-level cold core of the low is forecast to   
   remain offshore through this period.  This will minimize the risk   
   for boundary-layer destabilization, and any appreciable potential   
   for convection capable of producing lightning, across and inland of   
   coastal areas.   
      
   Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return is likely to   
   continue across parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower   
   Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night.  Although, in   
   lower levels, this will be off a still modifying western Gulf   
   boundary layer, it appears that elevated inland moistening, beneath   
   the southern periphery of colder mid-level air slowly retreating to   
   somewhat higher latitudes, will contribute to weak elevated   
   destabilization.  Forecast soundings continue to suggest that this   
   may become sufficient to support convection capable of producing   
   lightning, mainly in a corridor from southeast Texas   
   east-northeastward through the lower Mississippi Valley, aided by   
   forcing for ascent associated with one or two short wave   
   perturbations within the lingering cyclonic flow.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/20/2026   
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 90 221/1 6 360 226/18   
   SEEN-BY: 226/30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307 317 400 426   
   SEEN-BY: 229/428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111   
   SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426