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   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   FOUS30 KWBC 201523   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1023 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026   
      
   Texas coast...   
   An area of moisture convergence/frontogenesis has been the focus=20   
   of showers trying to stream into the Middle TX Coast off the Gulf=20   
   of Mexico. The 0.5"+ an hour rain amounts have been focused off the   
   coast, along the lines of the output from the 12z HREF guidance.   
   With time, the RAP shows the flow veering in this area, showing   
   less of a surface focus for the convection with time. The 12z HREF=20   
   is focusing whatever heavy rain threat that exists just offshore of   
   Port O'Connor, mostly during the 16-20z time frame, before fading.   
   Local totals to 3" are expected just offshore. Even if this=20   
   activity were to unexpectedly drift ashore, the heavy rainfall risk   
   appears too isolated and too limited for a Marginal Risk area, so=20   
   left the graphic area-free.=20   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Roth   
      
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Jan 21 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
      
   Campbell   
      
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Campbell   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!480FaRCB443YsYUZ_7sRxBYf0M8f7usADtjTvpHhTAu3=   
   2Fh-CeGV0plK2wBVE8fyKYAiSF7RxZB2gb43Ru_6qO32Yc0$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!480FaRCB443YsYUZ_7sRxBYf0M8f7usADtjTvpHhTAu3=   
   2Fh-CeGV0plK2wBVE8fyKYAiSF7RxZB2gb43Ru_6OFVUBUQ$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!480FaRCB443YsYUZ_7sRxBYf0M8f7usADtjTvpHhTAu3=   
   2Fh-CeGV0plK2wBVE8fyKYAiSF7RxZB2gb43Ru_6MXONIXQ$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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