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   AXNT20 KNHC 201012   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Tue Jan 20 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America,   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...    
      
   Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1032 mb    
   high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting   
   fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These    
   two features will remain in place through the middle of the week,    
   before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage    
   flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force at    
   night through Thu morning. Rough seas are forecast with these    
   winds.    
      
   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the    
   National Hurricane Center at website:   
   https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
   for more details.   
      
   Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern    
   Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are    
   expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts   
   with a now shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of    
   Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the NW Caribbean   
   in the wake of the shearline. This will result in the    
   continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through early Wed in the Gulf    
   of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12    
   inches will be likely.    
      
   Please consult products from your local meteorological services    
   for additional information.    
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of   
   Guinea near 09N14W and continues southwestward to 03N25W. The    
   ITCZ extends from 03N25W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate convection   
   is noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.    
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A broad ridge dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to   
   locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas across   
   much of the basin. The dry continental airmass moving across the   
   Gulf water suppresses the development of showers and thunderstorms.   
      
   For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the    
   region. The pressure gradient between this system and a frontal    
   boundary over the NW Caribbean supports fresh to strong northerly   
   winds and rough seas across the SE and SW Gulf, including the    
   Yucatan Channel. These marine conditions will continue to diminish   
   tonight. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the    
   United States will bring fresh to strong NE winds and building    
   seas, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of    
   Florida, tonight through Wed. The next cold front is slated to    
   enter the NW Gulf Fri night followed by fresh to strong winds and    
   building seas.   
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy   
   Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale    
   Warning offshore Colombia.   
      
   A dissipating stationary front has transitioned into a shearline,   
   extending from Camaguey, Cuba to the Bay Islands and northern    
   Honduras. Scattered showers are evident in the Bay Islands and    
   ahead of the front. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured   
   fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these    
   waters are moderate to rough. The remainder of the Caribbean is    
   dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic.    
   Outside of the south-central Caribbean, moderate to fresh    
   easterly and moderate to rough seas prevail across the rest of the basin.   
      
   For the forecast, gale force NE winds are forecast to pulse each    
   night over the waters offshore Colombia through Thu morning. A    
   shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras will   
   dissipate today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas    
   will persist over the NW Caribbean W of the shearline. By this    
   evening, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United    
   States will reinforce the northerly winds over the NW Caribbean,    
   including the Gulf of Honduras. These marine conditions will    
   improve by Wed. In addition, the NE winds will continue to    
   transport abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras    
   supporting periods of heavy rainfall through mid-week. An area of    
   moisture, currently located over the central Atlantic, will reach    
   the Leeward Islands on Wed, and Puerto Rico on Thu increasing the    
   potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central   
   Bahamas and then to Camaguey, Cuba. Scattered showers are noted    
   along this boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and    
   moderate to rough seas are noted behind the front. The rest of    
   the basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge near the    
   Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower    
   pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to near gale-force    
   easterly winds east of 60W and south of 28N. Seas in these waters    
   are rough. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas    
   are also occurring off Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter    
   winds and moderate seas prevail. Divergence aloft is sustaining a    
   few showers east of the Lesser Antilles, especially south of 21N    
   and between 40W and 55W.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will    
   continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds east of 65W    
   through Thu. A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the    
   coast of central Cuba. This feature will prevail in the area, then   
   lift N while dissipating by midweek. High pressure building over    
   the SE of the United States will reinforce the NE winds to fresh    
   to strong speeds over the western Atlantic, in the vicinity of the   
   Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Wed.    
      
   $$   
   ERA   
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