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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 201123   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 201122=20   
   NYZ000-201615-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0030   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0522 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Eastern shore of Lake Ontario into the Tug Hill   
   Plateau   
      
   Concerning...Heavy snow=20   
      
   Valid 201122Z - 201615Z   
      
   SUMMARY...A heavy lake-effect snow band will continue through the   
   morning, with rates of 2-4 inches/hour possible in the most intense   
   portions of the band.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A well-established lake-effect snow band is ongoing   
   from Lake Ontario into parts of the Tug Hill Plateau this morning.   
   While some north-south oscillations will be possible as a minor   
   midlevel shortwave trough approaches from the west, this band is   
   expected to persist through the morning. A favorably long fetch off   
   of Lake Ontario and a relatively deep convective boundary layer will   
   continue to favor very heavy snow rates within the most intense   
   portions of the band.=20   
      
   Short-term guidance indicates that midlevel temperatures will reach   
   a minimum (-32 to -33 C at 700 mb) by mid/late morning, and snow   
   rates of 2-4 inches/hour will continue to be possible through this   
   time frame. Some warming aloft and modest lowering of equilibrium   
   levels is eventually expected in the wake of the approaching   
   shortwave trough, but the favorable fetch will help to maintain this   
   band through much of the day.   
      
   ..Dean.. 01/20/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!-udeK7s7fDLW6ckM3UUKzfrLBh0aI3cH5RhR4tptV4HcVdQ-Ipv6vF4t57C-_BHqRePZXgZ0B=   
   CKfoeKj-4IGhDta81s$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...   
      
   LAT...LON   43977635 44047581 44027529 43777512 43597509 43477539   
               43437602 43467629 43547644 43977635=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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