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   FOUS11 KWBC 200909   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   409 AM EST Tue Jan 20 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
      
   ...Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, Great Lakes...=20   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Sprawling Hudson Bay vortex dominates the continental pattern   
   through this week. A pair of shortwave troughs round the low,=20   
   emerging from the Canadian Prairies as clippers and cross the=20   
   Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and the Great Lakes today and=20   
   Wednesday. These clippers will continue to trigger LES bands over=20   
   the typical snow belts in their wake.=20   
      
   The first shortwave trough axis reaches Montana this morning with   
   repeating areas of moderate snow through the morning with   
   topographical enhancements where 1"/hr snow rates are possible. Day   
   1 PWPF for >4" are around 50% on the Little Belt and Big Snowy   
   Mtns.   
      
   This clipper will redevelop snow bands over eastern SD this   
   afternoon with a decent, but narrow swath of snow then east along   
   the MN/IA and WI/IL borders tonight and southern MI late tonight   
   into Wednesday. Day 1.5 PWPF for >4" is 40-50% from northeast IA   
   along the WI/IL border and southwest MI. The Wednesday clipper   
   should follow a similar track, but with lower overall precip.   
      
   The Great Lakes ice coverage is rising, currently around 18%=20   
   mainly on narrower bays and western Lake Erie per GLERL.=20   
   Sufficiently steep low level lapse rates persist with 850mb=20   
   temperatures of -20C to -25C over surface water temperatures=20   
   between +1C and +5C.   
      
   Westerly flow continues today ahead of the first clipper with a   
   lull spreading east tonight through Wednesday night as the two   
   clippers cross. The strong single-banding persists from Lake   
   Ontario today with Day 1 PWPF for >8" additional after 12Z over 80%   
   in the Tug Hill Plateau. Day 2 PWPF for >6" is around 30% east of   
   Lake Erie and around 50% in the Tug Hill. Then LES resumes for the   
   northern Lakes with Day 3 PWPF for >6" over 90% in the Tug Hill.   
      
      
   ...Southern Tier...   
   Starting Day 3...   
      
   Southern stream low pressure pushes inland over the northern Baja   
   California Friday with broad cyclonic flow out ahead which opens up   
   Gulf moisture to surge over Arctic-sourced air spilling down the   
   Plains from the Hudson Bay vortex. Broad areas of heavy wintry   
   precip are expected to develop on Friday over Texas to the   
   Southeast. Confidence is high for this event occurring though   
   details on how much winter accumulations, types, and locations have   
   uncertainty mainly derived from the timing of the southern stream   
   wave surging inland. Key Messages on this storm and the extreme   
   cold are active and linked below.=20   
      
      
      
   Jackson   
      
      
      
   ...Extreme Cold Key Messages and Southern Tier Winter Storm Key=20   
   Messages are linked below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!66kif1vnRkDxDwdhyvRANP2JpfKbLwHYpkGOMDg3cQ-gJ=   
   5bEtdquSKelv5Dvb_Uca9AqyUzAP2URkWO8nhNKhH_ybR0$=20   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_2.png__;!!DZ3fjg!66kif1vnRkDxDwdhyvRANP2JpfKbLwHYpkGOMDg3cQ-gJ=   
   5bEtdquSKelv5Dvb_Uca9AqyUzAP2URkWO8nhNKUKiHd1s$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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