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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS11 KWNS 200225   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 200224=20   
   NYZ000-200830-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0029   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0824 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Downwind of Lake Ontario   
      
   Concerning...Heavy snow=20   
      
   Valid 200224Z - 200830Z   
      
   SUMMARY...A lake effect snow band will gradually intensify tonight,   
   with rates eventually approaching 2-4 inches per hour downwind of   
   Lake Ontario.   
      
   DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery from KTYX shows gradually   
   organizing lake effect snow bands extending downwind of Lake   
   Ontario. This is in response to subtle veering of uni-directional   
   boundary-layer flow (sampled by KTYX VWP) and a favorable fetch   
   developing across the long axis of Lake Ontario. This trend will   
   continue over the next few hours, as a low-level cyclone and   
   southward-extending surface trough continue advancing   
   east-northeastward across Quebec. Additionally, cooling temperatures   
   aloft (around -31C at 700 mb) will result in a deepening convective   
   boundary layer -- further aiding in the intensification of lake   
   effect snow bands extending across the Tug Hill Plateau and   
   vicinity. Heavy snowfall rates of around 2-4 inches per hour are   
   expected to begin in the 04-06Z time frame, and should continue   
   through the early morning hours.   
      
   ..Weinman.. 01/20/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!7YRl_VlEdacIKUduEKh1Z9DUyWUH-SStpvFWMWmi-2e_7rQRV_MOsw7sUhJSxLBGPBNUaVnZQ=   
   6U5VZZLyzXktZ28yIk$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...   
      
   LAT...LON   43947626 43977539 43857511 43537507 43387524 43387618   
               43467640 43667642 43947626=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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