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   FOUS11 KWBC 192055   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   355 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Tue Jan 20 2026 - 00Z Fri Jan 23 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A highly negative AO teleconnection will keep the large Hudson Bay   
   vortex in place while embedded shortwave troughs revolving around   
   the Hudson Bay vortex continue to trigger LES bands over the   
   typical snow belts. The Great Lakes are remain ice free away from   
   the narrower bays and coast lines. Sufficiently steep lapse rates   
   persist due to 850mb temperatures of -20C to -25C racing over   
   surface water temperatures between +2C to +6C.   
      
   For Lakes Erie/Ontario, SWly flow veers Wly today and tonight with   
   ongoing single-band LES shifting south of Buffalo and onto the Tug   
   Hill Plateau. Day 1 PWPF for >6" are 70-90% in these zones.   
      
   A brief lull occurs Tuesday evening in the western Lakes and   
   eventually eastern Lakes by Wednesday morning under brief ridging   
   until the next shortwave/a clipper system shifts east through the   
   region Tuesday night through Wednesday. A surface low lifts from   
   Iowa across the L.P. through that time with synoptic snow bands   
   across northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin where Day 2 snow probs   
   for >4" are 10-20%. Brief LES can be expected Wednesday into   
   Wednesday night where Day 2.5-3 PWPF for >4" are 40-70% in the   
   western U.P., the length of the western L.P. shore, and east of   
   Lakes Erie and Ontario.   
      
   Yet another clipper is quick on the heels on a similar path to the   
   previous with snow bands likely over northern Iowa, southern   
   Wisconsin and souther Michigan again Wednesday night through   
   Thursday. In total through Thursday, snowfall amounts are expected   
   to add up to at least 1 to 2 feet downwind of Lake Erie and Lake   
   Ontario, with higher chances (60-80%) for over 2 feet across the   
   Tug Hill of NY.   
      
      
   The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.   
      
      
   Snell/Jackson   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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