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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
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   ACUS03 KWNS 191918   
   SWODY3   
   SPC AC 191917   
      
   Day 3 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0117 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026   
      
   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Widely scattered weak thunderstorm activity appears possible   
   Wednesday into Wednesday night across parts of eastern Texas into   
   the lower Mississippi Valley.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Models indicate that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing will   
   generally be maintained across much of interior and eastern North   
   America during this period.  However, it appears that the southern   
   tier of the U.S. will continue to come under the increasing   
   influence of westerlies emanating from the southern mid- to   
   subtropical latitudes of the eastern Pacific.   
      
   Within an amplifying belt, including building mid-level ridging   
   across the mid-latitude eastern Pacific, a notable developing   
   mid-level low may continue to slowly dig toward the southern   
   California/northern Baja Pacific coast.  It appears that this may be   
   accompanied by initially elevated moisture return from the lower   
   latitude eastern Pacific, across coastal areas into the Sierra   
   Nevada.  However, the mid-level cold core, supportive of better   
   boundary-layer destabilization and the development of thermodynamic   
   profiles potentially more conducive to thunderstorm development,   
   will likely remain offshore through at least this period.   
      
   Downstream, lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return may continue to   
   overspread parts of southern/eastern Texas into the lower   
   Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Wednesday night.  It appears   
   that weak  boundary-layer destabilization, and one potential area of   
   thunderstorm development, aided by forcing for ascent downstream of   
   an initial perturbation emanating from the subtropical eastern   
   Pacific, will remain offshore of coastal areas.  However, elevated   
   inland moistening beneath residually cold mid-level air might become   
   sufficient for convection occasionally becoming capable of producing   
   lightning by late Wednesday into Wednesday evening.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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