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   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   ACUS02 KWNS 191707   
   SWODY2   
   SPC AC 191706   
      
   Day 2 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1106 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026   
      
   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z   
      
   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. for Tuesday through   
   Tuesday night appear less than 10 percent.   
      
   ...Discussion...   
   Seasonably cold and/or dry conditions will generally persist beneath   
   large-scale mid-level troughing encompassing much of North America   
   (across and east of the Rockies).  While little change in amplitude   
   is forecast through this period, models continue to indicate that an   
   initially notable ridge near/just offshore of the British Columbia   
   and Pacific Northwest coast is in the process of weakening.  As a   
   developing low within splitting troughing to the south-southwest of   
   this feature slowly digs toward the southern California coast, it   
   appears that weak mid/upper troughing emerging from the subtropical   
   eastern Pacific may shift inland across southern Baja and central   
   Mexico Tuesday through Tuesday night.   
      
   ...Lower Rio Grande Valley/Texas coastal plain into Ark-La-Tex...   
   It appears that the evolving pattern will allow for increasing   
   lower/mid-tropospheric moisture return across the region by late   
   Tuesday through Tuesday night.  This is likely to mainly emanate   
   from the subtropical eastern Pacific at mid-levels, and off a   
   modifying southwestern Gulf boundary-layer at lower levels.  While   
   forecast soundings suggest that this may contribute to developing   
   layers of weak conditional instability, it appears that weak to   
   negligible forcing for ascent will minimize the risk for convection   
   capable of producing lightning, even offshore of mid/lower Texas   
   coastal areas.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/19/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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