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   481    
   AXNT20 KNHC 191055   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Mon Jan 19 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...    
      
   Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1034 mb    
   high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is    
   supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore    
   Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the   
   middle of the week, before the high pressure weaken and shift   
   eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia   
   to gale force tonight, Tue night and Wed night. Rough to locally    
   very rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the    
   latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center    
   at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
    for more details.   
      
   Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern    
   Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are    
   expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts   
   with a pre-frontal trough in the NW Caribbean and a frontal   
   boundary currently across central Cuba. The front will stall later   
   today and transition to a shear line Tue before dissipating Wed.   
   This will result in the continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through   
   early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where    
   totals in excess of 12 inches will be likely. Please consult    
   products from your local meteorological services for additional    
   information.    
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra   
   Leone near 08N13W and extends to 02N20W. The ITCZ extends from    
   02N20W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is   
   from 01S to 08N between 06W and 31W.    
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A 1027 mb high pressure is building across the Gulf in the wake of   
   a cold front passage. The pressure gradient between the ridge and   
   the front, which is moving across the central Bahamas and central   
   Cuba, supports moderate to fresh N winds east of 90W and in the   
   Bay of Campeche. Rough seas to 10 ft are ongoing in the SW Gulf    
   and portions of the SE Gulf near the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere,    
   moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N winds across the E    
   and SW Gulf and rough seas associated with the passage of a cold    
   front will continue to diminish today. However, high pressure    
   building over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to    
   locally strong NE winds, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including    
   the Straits of Florida, Tue and Wed.   
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy   
   Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a gale    
   warning offshore Colombia.   
      
   A cold front extends from central Cuba and then stalls just east    
   of the Cayman Islands before continuing to the Gulf of Honduras.    
   A tight pressure gradient behind the front forces fresh to strong   
   NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the NW Caribbean W of 80W.   
   The remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical   
   ridge over the central Atlantic, which is supporting moderate to   
   fresh trades over the E basin and fresh to near gale-force trades   
   over the central Caribbean where rough seas to 10 ft are being   
   reported by a ship. Aside from the winds and seas, scattered   
   showers are ongoing over southern Cuba adjacent waters and the   
   Gulf of Honduras.   
      
   For the forecast, gale force winds are forecast at night offshore   
   Colombia today through Wed. The cold front is forecast to stall    
   from central Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras by this evening,   
   where it will continue to weaken before transitioning to a shear    
   line by Tue evening and dissipating by Wed evening. Ongoing fresh    
   to strong northerly winds and rough seas are forecast to prevail    
   west of the frontal boundary through Wed. Additionally, periods of   
   significant heavy rainfall are expected through mid-week as    
   abundant tropical moisture interacts with the frontal boundary in    
   the NW Caribbean. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur in    
   northern Honduras early Tue through early Wed, where totals in    
   excess of 12 inches will be possible.   
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A cold front is moving across the central Bahamas, extending from   
   31N71W to central Cuba. Scattered showers are behind the front,   
   affecting mainly the northern Bahamas. The remainder basin is   
   under the influence of the Azores High and long-period E swell,   
   which is supporting a very broad area of fresh to strong NE to E   
   winds from roughly from 16N to 27N E of 65W, all the way to the   
   coast of W Africa. Seas are rough to very rough to 13 ft with   
   these winds. Moderate to fresh trades are across the tropical   
   waters along with rough seas to 10 ft.    
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, strong Atlantic high pressure and E   
   long-period swell will support strong trade winds E of 65W    
   through Thu. The cold front will continue to bring fresh winds    
   through the region through this evening. The front will reach from   
   near Bermuda to central Cuba this evening, and stall past Bermuda   
   to central Cuba by Tue evening before dissipating. High pressure    
   building over the SE of the United States will boost NE winds to    
   fresh to strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida    
   Straits tonight into the middle of the week.   
      
   $$   
   Ramos   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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