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   FOUS11 KWBC 190842   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   342 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes/Upper Midwest...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Shortwave trough passages around a deep low over anchored over   
   Hudson Bay maintain cyclonic flow and Lake Effect Snow across the   
   Great Lakes snow belts at least into this weekend. The Great Lakes   
   are ice free away from the narrower bays. 850mb temperatures of   
   -20C to -25C over surface water temperatures between +2 to 6C will   
    continue to make for a high delta T and convective development.   
      
   A reinforcing trough currently over the U.P. swings east across   
   the rest of the Lakes today with a leading arctic cold front.   
   Post- FROPA NW flow through early Tuesday will promote multi-   
   banded snow into the U.P. and northern Lower Michigan where Day 1   
   WPC probabilities for >6" are 40-70%.   
      
   For Lakes Erie/Ontario, SWly flow veers Wly today with ongoing   
   single-band LES shifting south of Buffalo and onto the Tug Hill   
   Plateau. Day 1 PWPF for >6" are 60-80% in these zones. LES   
   continues through Tuesday night, so Day 2 PWPF for >6" are   
   especially highlighted over the Tug Hill with values over 80%.   
      
   A brief lull occurs Tuesday evening in the western Lakes under   
   brief ridging until the next shortwave/a clipper system shifts east   
   through the region Tuesday night through Wednesday. A surface low   
   lifts from Iowa across the L.P. through that time with synoptic   
   snow bands across northern Iowa and southern Wisconsin where Day   
   2.5 snow probs for >4" have risen to 20%. Brief LES can be expected   
   Wednesday into Wednesday night where Day 3 PWPF for >4" are 40-70%   
   in the western U.P., the length of the western L.P. shore, and east   
   of Lakes Erie and Ontario.   
      
   Yet another clipper is quick on the heels on a similar path to the   
   previous with snow bands likely over northern Iowa, southern   
   Wisconsin and souther Michigan again Wednesday night.   
      
      
   ...Central High Plains...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Right entrance jet dynamics continue to provide lift over a   
   baroclinic zone on the central High Plains as high pressure builds   
   south over the Northern Plains. A decent swath of snow with narrow   
   embedded bands of moderate to locally heavy snow have developed   
   from northern CO Front Range to western KS. These will persist into   
   or through the morning as should slowly sag south to southwestern   
   KS as the jet also shifts south with the shortwave trough pushing   
   down the Rockies. An additional few inches can be expected in the   
   better bands.   
      
      
   The probability of significant icing is less than 10 percent.   
      
      
   Jackson   
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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