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   FOUS11 KWBC 181903   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   203 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Mon Jan 19 2026 - 00Z Thu Jan 22 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Shortwave trough passages around an anchored deep low over Hudson   
   Bay maintains cyclonic flow through the Great Lakes with rounds of   
   heavy lake effect snow through at least the first part of the week.   
   The Great Lakes are currently mostly ice free (total ice cover   
   estimated at 14%), with surface water temperatures between 2-6C   
   (warmer over southern Lake Michigan and Lake Ontario). 850mb   
   temperatures of -20C or so will be quite sufficient for a delta T.   
      
   The next reinforcing trough swings east across the extent of the   
   Lakes tonight/tomorrow along with a surface front. Post-FROPA NW   
   flow through early Tuesday will promote multi-banded snow into the   
   U.P. and western Lower Michigan where WPC probabilities for at   
   least 6 inches of snow through 12Z Tue are >70%. For Lakes   
   Erie/Ontario, SW flow ahead of the system tonight will keep the   
   bands mostly in Canada except for around Buffalo/Niagara Falls   
   before sinking back southward Monday afternoon/evening and   
   eventually waning on Tuesday (lastly over the Tug Hill). WPC   
   probabilities for at least 6 inches of snow through 00Z Wed are   
   >90% over the Tug Hill and near/just south of Buffalo. Over the Tug   
   Hill where the band could persist the longest, WPC probabilities   
   for at least 18 inches of snow are >50%.   
      
   After a brief lull Tuesday evening in the western Lakes, another   
   system will move through the region overnight and into Wednesday   
   with the surface low lifting from the Corn Belt across Lake   
   Michigan through Lower Michigan. Synoptic snow will be followed by   
   lake effect snow on Wednesday with the highest probabilities for at   
   least 4 inches of snow over western Lower Michigan near the track   
   of the area of low pressure (>60% probs).   
      
      
   ...Eastern New England...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Deepening area of low pressure just outside the 40/70 benchmark at   
   00Z tonight will lift quickly northeastward into Atlantic Canada   
   overnight. Light to modest snow and snow rates (near 1"/hr) atop   
   cold to marginal surface temperatures over southeastern and eastern   
   New England will continue snow through the early overnight hours   
   before winding down by 12Z Monday. WPC probabilities for an   
   additional 4 inches of snow after 00Z are >50% over eastern MA and   
   northern RI (except for the Cape and Islands) and along eastern   
   coastal Maine.   
      
      
   ...Central High Plains...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Arctic front diving through the Plains will bring in colder air to   
   the High Plains tonight. Right entrance jet dynamics over the   
   front will allow banded snow to develop over central MT/WY this   
   evening with stronger banding overnight from northern CO terrain   
   through western KS with snow bands lingering Monday morning over   
   southwest KS into western OK. The WNWly orientation of these bands   
   is parallel to the flow and should allow for persistence of narrow   
   bands of moderate to locally heavy snow. Day 1 PWPF for >2" remain   
   limited to 30% over the CO Front Range and 10-20% east of the   
   Palmer Divide in CO/western KS. CAMs generally struggled with these   
   synoptically driven bands that have a risk for high performance   
   given the motion along orientation, so there remains a threat for   
   4"+ in persistent banding scenarios (e.g., NAM nest).   
      
   Fracasso   
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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