TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168665.weather@1:2320/105 2dd466ea   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS48 KWNS 180847   
   SWOD48   
   SPC AC 180845   
      
   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0245 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026   
      
   Valid 211200Z - 261200Z   
      
   ...DISCUSSION...   
   A large-scale upper trough will develop eastward across the Plains   
   and eastern U.S. on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu. As this occurs, some modest   
   Gulf moisture will spread across east TX toward the Lower MS Valley   
   ahead of a cold front. Some low potential for thunderstorms will be   
   possible, but the modest moisture return will limit instability and   
   severe potential is low.   
      
   Beyond Day 5/Thu, forecast guidance is not in very good agreement   
   with large spread resulting in greater than normal uncertainty. The   
   control member of the ECMWF appears to be an outlier, showing some   
   increasing severe potential across the Gulf Coast states toward the   
   end of the forecast period.  However, the GFS and EC-AIFS keep any   
   Gulf moisture offshore, precluding severe potential. Given these   
   large model discrepancies, severe probabilities seem low for now.   
      
   ..Leitman.. 01/18/2026   
      
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