TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168653.weather@1:2320/105 2dd3bc3d   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 172039   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 172038=20   
   NYZ000-PAZ000-172345-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0025   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0238 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026   
      
   Areas affected...western/central NY and northern PA   
      
   Concerning...Snow Squall=20   
      
   Valid 172038Z - 172345Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Long-lived snow squall may persist into early evening,   
   while likely diminishing in areal extent/intensity.   
      
   DISCUSSION...A long-lived snow squall which began west of Cleveland,   
   has recently passed through the Buffalo Metro Area, with numerous   
   first-order observing sites along Lake Erie having recorded   
   half-mile or less visibilities and gusts of 30-40 kts. More sporadic   
   snow squall conditions have been noted along the trailing portion of   
   the band that is now in western PA. A pocket of warmer surface   
   temperatures in western NY may help sustain the squall near the Lake   
   Ontario vicinity into early evening before more prominent weakening   
   of lapse rates. Large-scale mid-level warming will lower inversion   
   heights and combined with the onset of nocturnal surface cooling,   
   these factors should aid in the squall diminishing. This is   
   supported by latest RAP/early-afternoon CAM guidance with a   
   reduction in the snow-squall parameter and simulated reflectivity   
   trends towards 00Z.   
      
   ..Grams.. 01/17/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!5I-N8mAZuGR6DP6dVAcpULewVsrZ15362af9g7U9c9cs4Wl9ipTEoIUHPGm-gJeO5FDZ2CKpy=   
   xQ8dLW0xnB8mbNw3WA$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...   
      
   LAT...LON   42967861 43257840 43437779 43397683 43607640 44027616   
               44107553 43437542 42617619 41987692 41617771 41317823   
               41227858 41217921 41387937 41677928 42487874 42967861=20   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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