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   FOUS11 KWBC 170856   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   356 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 20 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Shortwave trough passages in persistent cyclonic flow through the=20   
   Great Lakes will favor rounds of lake effect snow for at least the   
   next week.   
      
   A long wave trough over the western Lakes this morning will slowly   
   shift east through tonight. Northerly flow over Lake Superior will   
   bring LES to the western U.P. with westerly flow over the L.P.   
   where Day 1 snow probs for >6" are 40-60% in narrow snow belts.   
      
   The next reinforcing trough moves in from the west with NWly flow   
   bringing more snow to the western U.P. and most of the L.P. western   
   shore. SWly flow over Lake Erie pushes some single banding into   
   Buffalo, NY. These areas have Day 2 snow probs for >6" in the   
   20-60% range. Then the next shortwave trough moves in from the west=20   
   Monday night with LES until ridging builds briefly late Tuesday.   
   Day 3 PWPF for >6" is over the eastern U.P. on westerly flow along   
   with the northern L.P. Most notably however, is single banding in   
   westerly flow over Lakes Erie and Ontario with Day 3 PWPF for >6"   
   40-80%.   
      
      
   ...Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and the Northeast...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Arctic cold front will shift east from the Midwest this morning and   
   cross PA this afternoon. Snow squalls could accompany this front   
   mainly over Ohio and western PA/NY which are highlighted in ongoing   
   Key Messages that are linked below.=20   
      
   A SWly jet stream strengthens in place over the eastern U.S.   
   through tonight as a very positively-tilted trough shifts down the   
   Plains and pivots over the Mid-South. Downstream of this trough   
   will be expanding snow through the interior Northeast, especially=20   
   over the Poconos, Catskills, Berkshires and southern Green=20   
   Mountains just ahead of the cold front. Snow could exceed 1"/hr in   
   these areas per the 00Z HREF. This precip clears eastern Maine=20   
   this evening. Day 1 WPC probabilities for >4" are 50% in the Mohawk   
   Valley of NY and over the southern Greens, Whites, and eastern   
   Maine with 20-30% probs over the Poconos/Catskills, and Berkshires.=20   
      
      
   ...Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   Within the active pattern in the East is a southern portion of the   
   full-latitude trough that swings through the Lower MS Valley=20   
   early Sunday. This will bring colder temperatures to the Southeast   
   as precipitation is slowly moving through the region along/behind=20   
   the front. Models are in better agreement tonight allowing enough   
   cold air in before precipitation ends to allow some light snow from   
   northern FL through the Carolinas Sunday morning with a dusting to   
   half an inch.=20   
      
   Further up the coast, precipitation will expand northeastward in   
   the right entrance of the >160kt jet atop marginal to cold=20   
   temperatures (milder along/east of I-95 in the Mid-Atlantic).=20   
   Elongated baroclinic zone and areas of surface low pressure will=20   
   lift northeastward just off the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast=20   
   Sunday night. Models have struggled here with the westward QPF=20   
   extent and are sensitive to the timing/strength of=20   
   upstream/incoming mid-level systems as the flow remains wide open.=20   
   For now, have remained fairly steady on the amounts which should=20   
   result in a swath of a few inches of snow from the Mid-Atlantic=20   
   into the NYC area and New England. 10 to 20% probs for >4" in Day 2 are   
   limited to eastern Maine and southeastern New England. The Day 2   
   swath of >2" over 10% extends south through NJ into the Delmarva.   
      
      
   ...Central High Plains...   
   Days 2/3...   
      
   Another Arctic cold front plunges down the Plains tonight through=20   
   Sunday. This banks cold air over the High Plains/against the front   
   ranges of the Rockies ahead of a reinforcing shortwave trough that   
   shifts down the Rockies Sunday night through Monday. Right entrance   
   jet dynamics over the existing front will allow banded snow to   
   develop over central MT/WY Sunday night with what appears to be the   
   main banding early Monday from northern CO terrain through western   
   KS. The WNWly orientation of these bands is parallel to flow and   
   should allow for persistence of moderate to locally heavy narrow   
   bands of snow. As of now Day 2.5 snow probs for >2" are around 20%   
   along the KS/CO border, but that is likely to increase as the   
   system gets closer. The ECAIFS was featuring this precip two nights   
   ago and global physical models are finally catching up. A risk for   
   4" or more is possible in these persistent banding scenarios.   
      
      
   Jackson   
      
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages remain in effect and are linked=20   
   below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!53LqTlmiHMfFGsvloks6bLMMHenjsnI7u8iz2V4YYXMnf=   
   wtJNLrDQZ30xNDPeBw5guoNHsTuPVbwDfbbLJhW__x0xiw$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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