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   FOUS11 KWBC 161925   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   225 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Sat Jan 17 2026 - 00Z Tue Jan 20 2026   
      
   ...Central and Northern Plains into the Midwest...=20   
   Days 1 and 3...   
      
   With a longwave trough and embedded shortwaves forecast to persist   
   the next few days, bouts of snow will continue for the Plains to   
   the Great Lakes/Midwest. Snow squalls along the Arctic front will   
   yield generally low amounts of snow but potentially   
   hazardous/dangerous driving conditions. Snow showers and squalls=20   
   this afternoon will shift southward/eastward tonight through the   
   Midwest with less coverage. Another shortwave from Canada will   
   carry another threat for some banded snow showers and some snow=20   
   squalls Sunday over the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest/Corn=20   
   Belt. Snowfall in these potentially lingering/repeating banding=20   
   could become locally heavy for a time and when combined with the=20   
   strong winds will create near-zero visibility.=20   
      
   Key Messages for these snow squalls are linked at the bottom of=20   
   this discussion.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Persistent cyclonic flow around the Great Lakes will favor rounds=20   
   of lake effect snow downwind of all Great Lakes Lead system tonight   
   will favor Michigan (esp. the U.P.) as the surface low moves into=20   
   Ontario. Next system on Sunday will renew the lake machine across=20   
   Michigan then into the NY lake belts as the next area of low=20   
   pressure moves right across Lake Superior into Ontario. WSW flow=20   
   over Lakes Erie/Ontario could move the bands quite far north (e.g.,   
   north of BUF and ART) but the progressive flow would vary the band   
   locations through the period. Three-day snow totals will be=20   
   modest, with the favored areas (northern shore of the U.P., western   
   Lower Michigan, and into the Tug Hill) show >50% probabilities for   
   at least 12 inches of snow.=20   
      
      
   ...Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and the Northeast...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Shortwave and cold front out of the Midwest will move into the   
   Appalachians with generally light to locally modest snow, enhanced=20   
   over the terrain (western PA/MD and eastern WV) tonight. WPC   
   probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are about 20-50%.=20   
      
   A strengthening upper jet will move into the Northeast early   
   Saturday with modest snowfall expanding through the interior   
   Northeast, especially over the Berkshires and into the southern   
   Green Mountains just ahead of the cold front. Snow could exceed   
   1"/hr in areas of the Poconos and northwestern NJ through parts of   
   the Catskills and into western MA per the 12Z HREF (30-60%=20   
   chance). The front should clear eastern Maine after 00Z and largely   
   end most accumulation. WPC probabilities for at least 6 inches of=20   
   snow are >50% over northwestern MA into southern VT as well as into   
   the Tug Hill Plateau.   
      
      
   ...Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, Northeast...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   Within the active pattern in the East is a southern portion of the   
   full-latitude trough that swings through the Lower MS Valley=20   
   Sunday morning. This will bring colder temperatures to the   
   Southeast as precipitation is slowly moving through the region   
   along/behind the front. Models have been struggling with how   
   quickly to move in colder air as precipitation ends, but some light   
   snow is possible over GA into the Carolinas Sunday morning of a   
   dusting to a tenth or two.=20   
      
   Further up the coast, precipitation will expand northeastward in   
   the right rear quad of the >160kt jet atop marginal to cold   
   temperatures (milder along/east of I-95 in the Mid-   
   Atlantic). Elongated baroclinic zone and areas of surface low=20   
   pressure will lift northeastward just off the Mid-   
   Atlantic/Northeast coast Sunday night. Models have struggled here   
   with the westward QPF extent and are sensitive to the   
   timing/strength of upstream/incoming mid-level systems as the flow   
   remains wide open. For now, have remained fairly steady on the   
   amounts which should result in a swath of a few inches of snow from   
   the Mid-Atlantic into the NYC area and New England. Highest   
   probabilities for at least 4 inches of snow are in eastern Maine   
   (>50%) as any chance of a more organized system is higher as it=20   
   approaches Nova Scotia. However, a light snow of 1-3" is likely=20   
   from NJ northeastward along/east of I-95/91 where WPC probabilities   
   of at least 2 inches are at least 30%.   
      
   Fracasso   
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20   
    Key Messages below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!87Gc6PAfEmAFY1wwwek2esPmSCIZYqVDtFagoGIre7OrO=   
   jq5eIs55aadK1HxyPINNkLRan8wbhzLqIvIYfPQxq8pr0A$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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