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   177    
   AXNT20 KNHC 161021   
   TWDAT   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Fri Jan 16 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 987 mb low    
   pressure located in the NW Atlantic to the central Bahamas and    
   central Cuba. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed    
   winds to gale force both ahead of and following the front north of   
   29N, embedded in an area of strong to near-gale force conditions    
   north of 25N and west of 65W. The front will reach from near    
   Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W    
   Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Winds will diminish    
   below gale force accordingly through early Fri. Elsewhere,    
   widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through    
   Fri. Rough to very rough seas are also expected ahead and behind    
   the front through Fri. Another cold front may impact the basin    
   late in the upcoming weekend.    
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the NW Gulf   
   tonight, supporting fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds and rough   
   seas behind the front. The front will reach from Apalachicola,    
   Florida to Tamaulipas, Mexico Sat night, then from SW Florida to    
   Veracruz, Mexico Sun evening and east of the basin by Sun night.    
   Winds are expected to strengthen to gale-force behind the boundary   
   late Sat into early Sun, especially off Tampico, and then    
   Veracruz late Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas will develop    
   with these winds. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon.    
      
   Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National    
   Hurricane Center at website:   
   https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea   
   near 11N14W and continues southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ    
   extends from 05N18W to 03N35W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate    
   convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.   
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.   
      
   A 1022 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf of    
   Mexico, supporting moderate to fresh N winds over the E Gulf   
   waters and rough seas over the E Gulf and Bay of Campeche.   
   Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail   
   elsewhere. The dry, cold continental airmass moving across the   
   basin is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms.   
      
   For the forecast, marine conditions will quickly improve from NW   
   to SE this morning. A reinforcing front will reach the NW Gulf    
   tonight, supporting fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds and rough    
   seas behind the front. The front will reach from Apalachicola,    
   Florida to Tamaulipas, Mexico Sat night, then from SW Florida to    
   Veracruz, Mexico Sun evening and east of the basin by Sun night.    
   Winds are expected to strengthen to gale-force behind the boundary   
   late Sat into early Sun, especially off Tampico, and then    
   Veracruz late Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas will develop    
   with these winds. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon.    
   However, the pressure gradient will tighten again Tue into Wed,    
   resulting in fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to rough    
   seas across much of the basin..   
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   A cold front extends from Camaguey, Cuba to southern   
   Belize. Moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas are noted    
   behind the boundary. A line of showers also extends from E    
   Hispaniola to Panama. Moderate to fresh N winds and moderate to   
   locally rough seas are found behind the front. Meanwhile, a strong   
   subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the   
   central and eastern Caribbean, sustaining moderate to fresh   
   easterly winds and moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter   
   winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.   
      
   For the forecast, the front is expected to stall from E Cuba to    
   Honduras later today, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient    
   may tighten later in the upcoming weekend and early next week    
   leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin    
   ahead of a reinforcing front. The front will arrive in the NW    
   Caribbean early next week and the tight pressure gradient behind    
   it will sustain fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough    
   seas during most of next week. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds    
   will pulse offshore of NW Colombia tonight, reaching near- gale    
   force at night starting Sat night and into early next week.   
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.   
      
   Outside of the area of gales described above in the Special    
   Features section, a ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic    
   to north of Hispaniola. Farther east, a broad upper low is    
   centered near 22N37W. A weak surface trough is noted from 24N35W   
   to 15N40W. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas cover a    
   large area north of 12N and east of 55W, south of the ridge.    
   Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will    
   reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas this morning, and from    
   31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken.    
   Widespread fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough    
   seas are found ahead and behind of the front. Gale force winds are   
   occurring north of 29N. These winds will shift eastward today,    
   before lifting north of our area this evening. Seas will    
   gradually diminish into the weekend. Another cold front may impact   
   the basin late in the upcoming weekend into early next week,    
   supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas..   
      
   $$   
   Delgado   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
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