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   FOUS11 KWBC 160911   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   411 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 19 2026   
      
   ...Central and Northern Plains into the Midwest...=20   
   Days 1 and 3...   
      
   Longwave trough re-establishes over the Great Lakes today where it   
   persists into next week as multiple shortwave troughs swing   
   through.   
      
   An arctic cold front currently pushing across ND will push   
   south-southeast into the Midwest today. Strong frontal CAA will=20   
   continue to provide sufficient ascent for widespread snow showers=20   
   and likely additional snow squalls both along the front as it=20   
   moves across the rest of the north-central Plains through the   
   Missouri River Valley today and potentially IL/IN this evening.=20   
   Potent snow streamers in cloud streets/horizontal convective rolls=20   
   in the NW flow behind the front should also trigger snow squall   
   warnings particularly over SD/Neb this morning through midday.=20=20   
   Some particulars on the linear bands include alignment=20   
   parallel to the flow within a region of elevated 0-2km fgen,=20   
   increasing low- level moisture, and steepening lapse rates where=20   
   winds at the top of the PBL exceed 50 kt. Snowfall in these   
   potentially lingering/repeating banding could become locally heavy=20   
   and when combined with the strong winds will create near zero=20   
   visibility and dangerous driving.=20   
      
   Key Messages are being updated for these snow squalls with the link=20   
   at the bottom of this discussion.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   The potent wave with the Arctic front has a leading cold front   
   currently over IA/KS which will swing east to the Appalachians   
   tonight and off the Eastern Seaboard Saturday with the Arctic   
   front quickly on its heels. The next reinforcing shortwave trough   
   then crosses the Great Lakes Sunday/Sunday night.=20   
   Renewed CAA across the Great Lakes today will reinstate LES with=20   
   more widespread coverage in snow belts as cold N/NW flow envelops=20   
   the entire region. Day 1 PWPF for >6" is 30-50% over the western   
   U.P., and the western L.P. This shifts to the Tug Hill and across   
   southern VT/NH for Day 1.5. Then Days 2 and 3 are highlighting   
   again over the western U.P. and western L.P.   
      
      
   ...Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and Northeastern Seaboard... Days=20   
   1-3...   
      
   Progressive flow within a reloading and persistent mid-level   
   longwave trough will create active winter weather across the area   
   through the weekend.   
      
   The arctic cold front reaches the Ohio Valley late tonight and the   
   Mid- Atlantic states Saturday. Snowfall is likely through lift=20   
   along the front, followed by impressive upslope snow for the=20   
   Central and Southern Appalachians. Steepening lapse rates will=20   
   keep the DGZ relatively shallow, but sufficient ascent into the=20   
   moistened column will result in periods of moderate to heavy=20   
   snowfall with Day 1.5 PWPF for >4" spotty for 20-40% probs from   
   western PA through WV and the higher Apps along the TN/NC border.   
      
   Sunday and Sunday night an elongated lobe of vorticity will swing=20   
   into New England, while a secondary and sharpening shortwave dives=20   
   into the primary longwave trough across the Mississippi Valley.=20   
   While the lead impulse should bring snow to northern Maine (WPC Day   
   2 probabilities for 4+ inches 10-30%), the more challenging and=20   
   bigger concern will be what happens with moisture spreading=20   
   northward from the Southeast and along the Mid-Atlantic Coast=20   
   starting late Saturday night. Confidence is growing for light to   
   moderate snow from eastern VA through coastal NJ, Long Island, and   
   southern New England where Day 2.5 probs for >2" are 20-80%=20   
   (highest in on the central Jersey Shore. The low track is offshore,   
   so this is the backside precip.   
      
      
   ...Southeast...   
   Days 2/3...   
      
   A baroclinic leaf develops downstream of the digging, positively   
   tilted trough axis over the Mid-South Saturday night with strong   
   cold air advection and snow potential for the Southeast   
   Piedmont through the shortwave trough passage Sunday evening. This   
   is the southern extent of the more notable snow mentioned above for   
   the Mid-Atlantic. Day 2.5 snow probs for >1" are around 40% in   
   Southeast VA with some 20% reaching into central NC. While most   
   guidance has low to no snow, there are notable outliers like the   
   06Z NAM with decent snow from central GA through central NC. This   
   will continue to be monitored as the system gets into the CAMs   
   today.   
      
      
   Jackson   
      
      
      
   ...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect and linked below...   
      
   https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=   
   stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5nz7zLo_-HKjp4ztUZSBDzH0Pt66De4raR4tqx5cnhKfQ=   
   4qGdTeZ-Djv7G_j9Nm6i4uqmWZChgeiXy02GdB7imda5mE$=20   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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