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   935    
   AXNT20 KNHC 150825   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Thu Jan 15 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the NW waters later   
   this morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri    
   morning, and extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it    
   will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds and rough    
   seas will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to    
   reach gale force ahead and behind the front N of 29N by this    
   evening. A reinforcing front may impact the basin late in the    
   upcoming weekend, bringing strong to near gale force winds and rough seas.   
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the   
   Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico. The front is followed    
   by fresh to near gale-force NW to N winds and rough seas per    
   recent buoy and platform observations, and earlier ASCAT    
   scatterometer data, along with building and rough seas. Frequent    
   gusts to gale force are expected across the coastal waters of the    
   NE Gulf, particularly between Apalachicola, FL and Mobile, AL    
   through much of today. Conditions will improve across the Gulf    
   region Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing surge of fresh to   
   strong northerly winds may impact the basin late in the weekend,    
   potentially developing northerly gale-force winds near Tampico and   
   Veracruz on Sun.   
      
   Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National    
   Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra   
   Leone near 08N13W, then runs southwestward to 08N15W. The ITCZ    
   extends from 04N12W to 02N30W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate    
   convection is noted on conventional satellite imagery from 00N to    
   02N between 14W and 20W, and from 01.5N to 04N between 21W and 26.5W.   
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A Gale Warning for frequent gusts to gale force is in effect for   
   the coastal waters of the NE Gulf. Please, read the Special    
   Features section for more details.    
      
   As mentioned, a cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to    
   near Tampico, Mexico. The front is followed by fresh to near    
   gale-force NW to N winds and rough seas per recent buoy and    
   platform observations, and earlier ASCAT scatterometer data, along   
   with building and rough seas. Multilayer clouds, with possible    
   showers, are noted over most of the Gulf waters and Florida.    
   Mainly moderate SW-W winds with a pre-frontal trough are noted    
   across the remainder of the basin ahead of the front.    
      
   For the forecast, a cold front from the Florida Big Bend to near    
   Tampico, Mexico will move rapidly across the basin, shifting    
   southeast of the area by this evening. The front is followed by    
   increasing winds and building seas. Conditions will improve from    
   NW to SE tonight into the weekend. A reinforcing front and surge    
   of fresh to strong northerly winds may impact the basin this weekend.   
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   Fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean early this   
   morning, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh winds are    
   noted over the remainder of the east and central parts of the    
   basin S of 20N. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas   
   dominate the western Caribbean, except in the far NW Caribbean   
   where a pre-frontal trough reaches from the western tip of Cuba to   
   the Gulf of Honduras with moderate NW winds to the W of it. Some    
   shower activity is observed near the trough. Elsewhere, patches of   
   low level moisture, with possible showers, prevail.   
      
   For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds    
   offshore of NW Colombia early this morning, then return Fri night    
   through the weekend and into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate    
   or weaker winds will prevail through early today, except moderate    
   to fresh across the remainder of the central Caribbean S of 20N. A   
   cold front will move into the NW Caribbean later today, stall    
   from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure   
   gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the    
   upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds    
   and building seas across the basin, while a reinforcing front and    
   surge of winds also arrives in the NW Caribbean by early Mon.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   Please read the Special Features section about an upcoming Gale Warning.   
      
   A cold front extends from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida where    
   it has stalled, with fresh to strong winds on either side N of 27N   
   and W of 68W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are flaring up    
   near this boundary. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and W of    
   68W, along with locally rough seas, mainly N of 30N.   
      
   High pressure dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic    
   forecast region. Under the influence of this system, an area of    
   fresh to strong NE winds is noted from 12N to 26N and E of 35W to   
   the coast of W Africa, including near the Cabo Verde Islands.    
   Seas of 7 to 10 ft are within these winds. Moderate to locally    
   fresh trades are observed across the tropical Atlantic with    
   moderate to rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and mainly    
   moderate seas are elsewhere. An upper-level low in the central    
   Atlantic near 23N38W is triggering some shower activity, while   
   moist southerly flow in the wake of a warm front now well N of 31N   
   supports additional shower activity N of 27N between 46W and 60W.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, a reinforcing front will move off    
   Florida later this morning and merge with the leading front,    
   reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and    
   extending from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall    
   and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the    
   front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force Thu    
   night east of the front and N of 29N. Another cold front may    
   impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.    
      
   $$   
   Lewitsky   
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