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   FOUS11 KWBC 150823   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   323 AM EST Thu Jan 15 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 18 2026   
      
      
   ...Northeast...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Accumulating snowfall will be ongoing this morning across western   
   and northern NY into northern New England. Additional accumulations   
   after 12z will be highest across western NY (where some lake   
   enhancement will occur) and over northern ME...with the probability   
   of 4"+ of additional snow over 70%. This area of snow will wind   
   down tonight, although some lingering lake effect snow will   
   continue along with some wrap around snow into northern ME.   
      
      
   ...Central and Northern Plains into the Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A mid level trough with multiple lobes of embedded vorticity will   
   drop into the Northern Plains and Great lakes today into Friday   
   bringing periods of snow. One area of snow will move into MN, WI   
   and the Great Lakes ahead of and associated with a low moving out   
   of Canada today into Saturday. Mainly looking at light snowfall   
   accumulations with this low, although some heavier totals can be   
   expected off of Lake Superior and Lake Michigan. Overall this is   
   setting up to be a long duration of light to moderate snowfall   
   across these lake effect areas, with 72hr probabilities of   
   exceeding 8" of snow in the 70-90% range across portions of the   
   western U.P of MI into northeast WI...and 50-70% over western MI.   
   Lighter amounts, generally in the 1-4" range, can be expected over   
   MN into WI.   
      
   Snow showers will also accompany this system farther west across   
   the Dakotas into NE, both along the southward dropping cold front   
   and in its wake. Snowfall amounts are not expected to be   
   significant, generally on the order of 1-2" or less...however this   
   snow will be accompanied by significant wind gusts, likely   
   resulting in reduced visibility and hazardous travel. These snow   
   showers should start in ND by Thursday evening, spreading south   
   into SD Thursday night, and then continuing over much of the   
   Northern Plains through the day Friday. HREF EAS probabilities of   
   .01" can be a decent proxy for snow shower coverage...and these   
   values increase into the 70-100% range Thursday night over much of   
   ND into eastern SD, dropping closer to 40-60% during the day   
   Friday. Thus anticipating numerous to widespread coverage of snow   
   showers as the cold front pushes across Thursday night, decreasing   
   to scattered coverage during the day Friday. Heavier snow shower   
   coverage may be more isolated to scattered in nature...but where   
   these brief heavier rates occur a sharp reduction in visibility can   
   be expected with wind gusts as high as 40-60 MPH. This setup would   
   seemingly support at least some snow squall potential near and   
   just behind the cold front as it drops south Thursday night. Snow   
   shower coverage and intensity should generally be on a downward   
   trend Friday, however wind gusts will remain high. One limiting   
   factor for blowing snow impacts from this system is the lack of   
   antecedent snow cover...however if we are able to get snowfall   
   accumulations ~2" Thursday night into early Friday then blowing   
   snow concerns could increase during the day Friday, especially   
   within snow showers.   
      
      
   ...Ohio Valley, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast...   
   Days 2-3   
      
   A decent amount of uncertainty exists Friday night into Sunday from   
   the OH Valley into the East Coast...all related to how the multiple   
   vort maxes interact within the large scale trough moving towards   
   the East Coast. Model guidance is trending a bit stronger with one   
   lobe of vorticity Friday night into Saturday moving from the OH   
   valley into the Mid-Atlantic. This should support an expanding area   
   of light to moderate precipitation across TN/KY Friday night,   
   spreading into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday. Not   
   anticipating any significant snowfall from this feature, but some   
   light snow accumulations are possible over portions of northeast TN   
   into KY Friday night. Temperatures are marginal, but enough of the   
   guidance is just cold enough to support the potential for 1-2" of   
   snowfall...and the latest WPC probabilities of 1"+ are in the   
   30-60% range, which seem reasonable. Some light snow (generally   
   under 1") could then spread into portions of the northern Mid-   
   Atlantic saturday morning, with totals upwards of 1-3" possible   
   across the interior Northeast.   
      
   Attention will then turn to energy diving into the base of the   
   large scale trough and how this evolves from the Gulf Coast to the   
   East Coast. Seemingly have 3 deterministic model camps with this   
   system. The 00z GFS is the slowest and most aggressive with this   
   feature, taking it neutral to negatively tilted by 12z Sunday   
   resulting in a more expansive swath of precipitation over the   
   Southeast Saturday night into Sunday morning. While boundary layer   
   temperatures are marginal, some accumulating snowfall would be   
   possible over the Southeast states in this scenario. On the other   
   hand the ECMWF, while slower like the GFS, is more positively   
   tilted, keeping the system more suppressed, and thus little to no   
   winter precip through 12z Sunday. The 00z AIGFS/AIFS/GEM all depict   
   a quicker shortwave trough that results in a precipitation axis   
   farther east than the GFS, but moving quicker up the East Coast as   
   well. This scenario is a warmer one however, with the bulk of the   
   precipitation staying ahead of the colder airmass. Thus most of the   
   precip over the Southeast in this scenario is rain through 12z   
   Sunday. Not really seeing any clear trend to support hedging one   
   way or another with the forecast at this point, so will just need   
   to continue to monitor and hope for a more consistent trend today.   
   Current probabilities of 1"+ of snow through 12z Sunday are low,   
   only peaking around 5-10% over portions of AL and GA. Probabilities   
   do increase into the 20-30% range from NC into New England later   
   Sunday, but the aforementioned model spread will play a significant   
   role in how that forecast plays out.   
      
   Chenard   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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