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   ACUS01 KWNS 141628   
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   SPC AC 141626   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1026 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026   
      
   Valid 141630Z - 151200Z   
      
   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible across south Florida and the   
   Keys today.   
      
   ...Synopsis and Discussion...   
   Deep upper troughing extends over much central and eastern CONUS.   
   This troughing features two phased shortwave troughs, one moving   
   southeastward through the Upper Midwest and the other moving through   
   OK and AR. Both of these shortwaves are expected to continue   
   southeastward/eastward throughout the period as the parent upper   
   troughing also shifts gradually eastward. Upper ridging will persist   
   across the western CONUS, resulting in an amplified ridge/trough   
   pattern over the CONUS by early tomorrow.   
      
   Stable conditions are anticipated across the majority of the CONUS,   
   as the progression of the aforementioned shortwaves leads to a   
   reinforcing surge of dry, continental air. The only exception is   
   across south FL, where modest moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper   
   60s/low 70s) remain in place along the southeast coast. A few   
   thunderstorms are possible in this vicinity today, fostered by   
   limited buoyancy amid weak low-level convergence close to a weak   
   surface low. Additionally, low-level moisture and convergence are   
   forecast to increase as the southernmost shortwave trough mentioned   
   earlier progresses across the Gulf. Resulting increase in lift and   
   buoyancy could result in a few isolated thunderstorms along the   
   southwest FL Coast early tomorrow morning.   
      
   ..Mosier/Squitieri.. 01/14/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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