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   FOUS11 KWBC 140751   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   251 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Sat Jan 17 2026   
      
      
   ...Northern Plains through the Northeast, and the Appalachians...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   A longwave trough across the eastern CONUS will amplify and   
   periodically re-load through the upcoming weekend as repeated   
   shortwaves intensify and drop southeast from Canada. The core of   
   this trough will deepen most impressively over the Gulf Coast   
   Thursday aftn (ECMWF 500mb heights as low as the 0.5 climatological   
   percentile). Within this progressive flow, even as these lead   
   impulses rotate away on Friday, the next shortwave trough will   
   follow immediately in its wake, moving from the Northern Plains to   
   the Mid-Mississippi Valley Friday night. Similar to the Southeast   
   on Thursday afternoon, 500mb heights over the Missouri River Valley   
   are likely to be as low as the 0.5 climatological percentile.   
      
   The headlining weather hazard, aside from some of the coldest   
   temperatures and wind chills of the season-to-date, will be the   
   multiple days of lake effect snow (LES) downwind of the Great   
   Lakes, especially in the more northerly belts as winds become NNW   
   beneath strong CAA. WPC probabilities for LES are high (>70%) for   
   more than 8 inches in the higher elevations of the U.P. including   
   the Huron and Porcupine Mountains, as well as along the E/SE shore   
   of Lake Michigan into northern Indiana. Lake-enhanced snowfall   
   will also unfold along the Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill through   
   Thursday. There are likely to be some localized totals over 12   
   inches along the Chautauqua Ridge, along the shores of Lake   
   Ontario, and on the Tug Hill. The heaviest LES is likely in a   
   single band off Lake Michigan into SW MI/NW IN late Wednesday   
   through late Thursday. CAMs guidance is showing steep lapse rates   
   and exceptional vertical velocities that coincide within a fully   
   saturated DGZ-- a clear sign of a robust LES band. WPC   
   probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall totals   
   >12 inches where localized amounts approaching 20" cannot be ruled   
   out given the potential for prolific >2"/hr snowfall rates beneath   
   a band that will oscillate between southwest MI and northwest IN   
   for a 12-24 hour stretch.   
      
   Across the Central Appalachians and Northeast, the lead shortwave   
   will not only work together with an Atlantic-offshore jet streak to   
   create low pressure development across the Northeast, but also drag   
   an arctic front from the Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic on   
   Thursday. This will create a short period of heavy upslope snow   
   from the higher elevations of NC through the Laurel Highlands of PA   
   where WPC probabilities are moderate (50-70%) for at least 4   
   inches, generally above 3000 ft, with locally 6-8 inches possible.   
   The tallest peaks of the Smokey Mountains could see localized   
   totals approach 12 inches. Farther north into Upstate NY and   
   northern New England, model guidance has trended snowier over the   
   past 12-24 hours of model cycles as the slightly longer duration   
   of moderate-to-heavy snowfall just north and west of the 850mb low   
   appears to be coming to fruition. The deformation zone will   
   maintain a saturated profile long enough, within an atmosphere that   
   supports rising SLRs, to produce heavy snowfall beginning as early   
   as Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday. WPC   
   probabilities show moderate-to-high chances (50-70%) for snowfall   
   totals >8 inches from northwest PA through much of western NY and   
   into NY's North Country and St. Lawrence Valley.   
      
   Finally, on D3 with the next shortwave digging out of Saskatchewan   
   into the Upper Midwest, height falls and modest warm/moist   
   advection will create a swath of generally light snow, followed by   
   strong winds behind yet another arctic front. WPC probabilities   
   indicate only a 10-30% chance for at least 4 inches of snow for   
   parts of SD/MN/WI, but WSSI-P suggests an increasing threat for   
   blowing snow impacts just behind this wave, so travelers should be   
   prepared for hazardous driving Friday despite the modest snowfall   
   amounts forecast. Farther east, the shortwave trough will once   
   again kick-up LES bands across the U.P. and western shores of   
   Michigan. WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for snowfall   
   totals >4 inches in the U.P.'s Porcupine Mountains and moderate   
   chances (40-60%) for >4 inches of snow over the western MI shore.   
   The Porcupines have the best odds at locally heavy totals with   
   low-to-moderate chances of totals >8 inches.   
      
      
   The probability for significant ice across the CONUS is less than   
   10%.   
      
      
   Mullinax/Weiss   
      
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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