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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   251 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026   
      
   Recent Doppler radar imagery from Miami is indicating a nearly   
   stationary area of thunderstorms south of Key Biscayne, and just   
   east of Biscayne National Park as a result of a compact mesoscale   
   convective vortex. Moderate showers are ongoing across portions of   
   the Miami-Dade metro area, with some heavier rainfall possible at   
   times south of the city. However, the majority of the CAM guidance   
   supports the core of this convection remaining over the coastal   
   waters through this afternoon, and therefore no new risk areas are   
   currently warranted at this time. Should things evolve differently   
   than currently expected, a special ERO issuance could be needed   
   later today.   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Hamrick   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Hamrick   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Hamrick   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5RNf9bThGnd1VYl4434Cl22Mwp7RdyDS4Iw60NcHI7cn=   
   KkLM-v_DJHdyxwUPIIPQhZHfATobZd00rqOR6mc-jK2o-FY$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5RNf9bThGnd1VYl4434Cl22Mwp7RdyDS4Iw60NcHI7cn=   
   KkLM-v_DJHdyxwUPIIPQhZHfATobZd00rqOR6mc-aVsmCrw$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!5RNf9bThGnd1VYl4434Cl22Mwp7RdyDS4Iw60NcHI7cn=   
   KkLM-v_DJHdyxwUPIIPQhZHfATobZd00rqOR6mc-S8Di9mc$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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