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   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1051 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026   
      
   Recent Doppler radar imagery from Miami is indicating a nearly   
   stationary area of thunderstorms south of Key Biscayne, and just   
   east of Biscayne National Park as a result of a compact mesoscale   
   convective vortex. Moderate showers are ongoing across portions of   
   the Miami-Dade metro area, with some heavier rainfall possible at=20   
   times south of the city. However, the majority of the CAM guidance=20   
   supports the core of this convection remaining over the coastal=20   
   waters through this afternoon, and therefore no new risk areas are=20   
   currently warranted at this time. Should things evolve differently   
   than currently expected, a special ERO issuance could be needed=20   
   later today.   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Hamrick   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Thu Jan 15 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Kleebauer   
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Qm9RYZoqPYNRoaF6WMgmGUAuPLfP1BJ5nJoW7hOFqKs=   
   qWM8BK_JSExI1PJUjukE7MTNf_suG3J-_UjB1q5Fuc_w190$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Qm9RYZoqPYNRoaF6WMgmGUAuPLfP1BJ5nJoW7hOFqKs=   
   qWM8BK_JSExI1PJUjukE7MTNf_suG3J-_UjB1q5FhhXUPZ8$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!4Qm9RYZoqPYNRoaF6WMgmGUAuPLfP1BJ5nJoW7hOFqKs=   
   qWM8BK_JSExI1PJUjukE7MTNf_suG3J-_UjB1q5FEjtBhv4$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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