TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168520.weather@1:2320/105 2dcdc5c1   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS11 KWBC 130808   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   308 AM EST Tue Jan 13 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 16 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   After a day of light snow across the Upper Great Lakes today thanks   
   to a Canadian clipper racing east across southern Ontario, a more   
   potent 500mb shortwave trough with an accompanying arctic cold   
   front will reinvigorate the lake-effect snow machine starting   
   tonight. Robust CAA in wake of the arctic front will result   
   numerous multi-banded streamers, especially over the northern half   
   of the U.P., northern and western L.P., and south of Lake   
   Michigan. Additional LES bands are likely over northeast Ohio, the   
   Chautauqua Ridge, and as far north as the Tug Hill late Wednesday   
   and through Thursday. The heaviest totals will be found over   
   northwest IN and far southwest MI where there is high confidence in   
   a potent single-band of LES that is likely to generate 1-2"/hr   
   snowfall rates. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances   
   (50-70%) for snowfall totals >6" in northwest IN with lower chances   
   (10-30%) for amounts exceeding 8". Given the intense mesoscale   
   forcing at play, seeing some localized amounts approaching 12"   
   cannot be ruled out. WPC's WSSI does depict Moderate Impact   
   potential in the hardest hit areas of northwest IN which could   
   result in delays and/or closures along I-94 and I-80.   
      
   Elsewhere, WPC probabilities show high chances (>70%) for over 4"   
   of snow across much of the U.P., while western MI (including   
   Traverse City) show moderate chances (>50%) for over 4 of snowfall.   
   For Wednesday and through Thursday, moderate-to-high chances   
   (50-70%) for snowfall >4" are depicted over northeast OH, the   
   Chautauqua Ridge, and the Tug Hull Plateau. Some areas along the   
   Chautauqua Ridge and Tug Hill could top 8" and localized amounts   
   approaching 12" are possible.   
      
      
   ...Central Appalachians through the Northeast...   
   Days 2-3...   
      
   Over the past 12-24 hours, guidance has continued to trend farther   
   north with the track of the 500mb low traversing southern Ontario   
   Thursday AM that then heads into Upstate NY Thursday evening. The   
   mean 250-500mb mean trough axis is also becoming increasingly more   
   positive, which is resulting in less deepening of the developing   
   over Upstate NY by Thursday morning. With these trends, the best   
   divergence and moisture aloft will reside to the north of the 500mb   
   low over western and far northern NY. Guidance still disagrees as   
   to the duration and intensity of the snowfall, but the setup still   
   favors the development of a TROWAL over the region. Snow will   
   envelop the Adirondacks and North Country that could reach as far   
   south as the Finger Lakes. Snow is expected across much of northern   
   New England Thursday morning, but it is worth noting there is   
   evidence of a 700-300mb dry slot quickly advancing in from the   
   southwest that could try to end snowfall sooner over the   
   Adirondacks, Hudson and Champlain Valleys, and into the Green and   
   White Mountains. The one area that could still see wrap around   
   snow is western NY and the Chautauqua Ridge where the pivoting   
   TROWAL and lake enhanced snow bands are likely to linger through   
   the remainder of Thursday. Snow is also expected to the north of   
   the 500mb vort max over northern Maine before tapering off Friday   
   morning.   
      
   WPC 24-hour probabilities show the NY's shores along Lake Ontario   
   and NY's North Country as having moderate chances (40-60%) for   
   snowfall totals >6" through Thursday night with the Tug Hill   
   Plateau sporting low chances (10-30%) for localized snowfall totals   
   approaching a foot. The peaks of the Green and White Mountains are   
   also likely to see over 6" of snow while northern Maine shows low-   
   to-moderate chances (30-50%) for snowfall totals >4".   
      
   Farther south, guidance has also gradually trended less snowy in   
   the central and southern Appalachians. Persistent upslope low   
   amidst cyclonic flow that taps into Great Lakes moisture is likely   
   to produce anywhere from 1-4" of snow from the Laurel Highlands on   
   south through the Potomac Highlands and into the Blue Ridge and   
   Smokey Mountains of TN/NC. The >3,000ft mountain ranges in eastern   
   WV and the peaks of the Smokeys shows moderate chances (40-60%) for   
   localized snowfall totals >4" through Thursday afternoon. Snowfall   
   will taper off by Thursday evening as high pressure over the South   
   builds in over the region Thursday night.   
      
      
   ...Upper Midwest & Northern Plains...   
   Day 3...   
      
   On Thursday, another Canadian clipper system ushers in another   
   round of snow over northern MN, northern WI, and the western U.P..   
   A plume of moisture associated with a ribbon of 850-700mb FGEN will   
   produce some minor snowfall accumulations Thursday afternoon. As   
   the snow via WAA moves into the U.P. Thursday night, another arctic   
   front will race south through the Northern Plains. The strong CAA   
   and steepening lapse rates may trigger snow squalls over the   
   Dakotas and as far west as eastern MT. WPC probabilities   
   favor northern MN and northwest WI for low-to-moderate chances   
   (30-50%) for snowfall totals >4", although a coating to 1" due to   
   passing snow squalls in the Northern Plains are also possible,   
   along with strong wind gusts that could result in whiteout   
   conditions locally Thursday night and early Friday morning.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/120 18/0 19/10 105/81 106/201 116/116 123/0 25 126 180   
   SEEN-BY: 123/755 3001 3002 4040 128/187 129/14 134/100 135/115 153/143   
   SEEN-BY: 153/148 149 151 757 7715 154/10 110 218/700 840 220/70 221/1   
   SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 222/2 226/17 30 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307   
   SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 250/1 266/512 267/800   
   SEEN-BY: 275/1000 291/111 301/1 320/219 322/757 335/364 341/66 342/200   
   SEEN-BY: 396/45 460/58 633/280 712/848 1321 770/1 100 340 350 772/210   
   SEEN-BY: 772/220 230 902/26 2320/0 105 304 3634/0 12 27 57 58 60 61   
   SEEN-BY: 3634/119 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 3634/12 153/757 221/6 218/840 770/1 633/280 229/426