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   803    
   AXNT20 KNHC 120842   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Mon Jan 12 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through  0800 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is moving across the   
   Gulf from near S Florida to N of the Yucatan Channel to the    
   central Bay of Campeche where it is stalling. Gale force NW to N    
   winds to 40 kt with seas to 18 ft are occurring over the SW Gulf    
   in the wake of the front. Strong northerly winds and moderate to    
   rough seas follow the front elsewhere. The front will weaken and    
   stall from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the    
   eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf    
   will gradually improve tonight into Tue. Please read the latest    
   High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at    
   website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml  for more details.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough exits the coast of Guinea near 10.5N14W and    
   continues to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N20W to the coast of   
   northern Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is    
   from 01N to 09N between 22W and 45W.    
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning.   
      
   A cold front is moving across the Gulf from near S Florida to N    
   of the Yucatan Channel to the central Bay of Campeche where it is    
   stalling. Gale force NW to N winds to 40 kt with seas to 18 ft are   
   occurring over the SW Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong    
   northerly winds and moderate to rough seas follow the front    
   elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE winds and slight to moderate seas   
   are analyzed ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf and the    
   Straits of Florida.    
      
   For the forecast, the front will weaken and stall from western    
   Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of    
   Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually    
   improve tonight into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to    
   moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The   
   next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and    
   building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting SE of   
   the basin Thu. Conditions should improve by the end of the week.   
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   A strong and broad ridge north of the Caribbean continues to   
   support strong to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas in the   
   south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE-E    
   breezes and moderate seas prevail. No significant convection is    
   noted in the Caribbean.   
      
   For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will    
   pulse offshore of NW Colombia through much of the week due to the    
   pressure gradient between high pressure NE of the region and low    
   pressure over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. Pulsing    
   moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast south of Hispaniola,    
   in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba through the early    
   part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will    
   prevail. A weakening stationary front is forecast to extend across   
   western Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Tue morning    
   while gradually dissipating. Another cold front may move into the    
   NW part of the basin Thu.    
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A strong cold front extends from just W of Bermuda to the    
   northern Bahamas and S Florida with fresh to strong winds and    
   rough to very rough seas building behind it. The remainder of the   
   SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under a weak pressure gradient   
   that supports moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.   
      
   A surface trough is analyzed at 64W and north of 20N. The    
   interaction of this feature and divergence aloft sustains    
   scattered showers east of the boundary. The remainder of the    
   tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical    
   ridge over the far NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh easterly   
   winds and seas of 4-8 ft are noted between 42W and 55W. Moderate    
   to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 5-9 ft are found south of    
   25N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and    
   moderate seas prevail.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, the front will become stationary as   
   it dissipates on Tue. Then, high pressure will follow the front.    
   Looking ahead, the next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed    
   night, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu    
   night. At that time, gale conditions are possible in the wake of    
   the front near 31N with building seas across the waters.   
      
   $$   
   Lewitsky   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
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