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   FOUS11 KWBC 111942   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   242 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 00Z Thu Jan 15 2026   
      
      
   ...Central Appalachians...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Snow squalls are expected to wane by this evening over the Mid-   
   Atlantic as the associated cold front exits into the eastern   
   Atlantic Ocean and lapse rates weaken following sunset. Upslope   
   northwesterly flow into the terrain of the central Appalachians may   
   continue to produce moderate snowfall until early Monday morning   
   when this flow eventually weakens and dries out due to a more   
   westerly component to the winds. A few inches of additional   
   snowfall are likely across the Allegheny Mts of WV, western MD, and   
   southwest PA.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes & Northern New England...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   Deep upper trough and attached closed low starts the period over   
   New England with an associated rapidly deepening surface low   
   quickly exiting towards Newfoundland. Lingering light to moderate   
   snowfall is possible tonight along with increasing winds across far   
   northern ME due to this area of low pressure. Latest WSSI depicts   
   Minor Impacts through tonight due to this continuing snowfall.   
      
   Meanwhile, cold northwesterly flow will weaken on Monday over the   
   Great Lakes and northern New England as an embedded shortwave   
   crosses the region with additional light snow downwind of Lake   
   Ontario and into the favorable upslope terrain of the Adirondacks,   
   northern Greens and Whites. Then by Tuesday a much stronger   
   shortwave and area of low pressure is expected to pass over or just   
   to the north of the Great Lakes. Initial WAA snow is possible over   
   the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday morning along with a glaze of   
   freezing rain, but snow and ice amounts are expected to remain   
   light. As this system exits to the east on Wednesday and upper   
   troughing deepens over the Great Lakes as well as increasing   
   northerly CAA, lake effect snow is forecast to pick up once again   
   along the shores of Lake Superior in the U.P. of MI.   
      
   For the entire period snowfall totals are expected to remain   
   mostly light outside of the Tug Hill Plateau and favorable   
   snowbelts in the U.P. of MI. WPC probabilities for over 8" of snow   
   through 00Z Thursday are 50-70% in the Tug Hill and 20-50% in the   
   MI U.P. from the Porcupine to Huron Mts.   
      
      
   Snell   
      
      
   $$   
      
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