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   608    
   AXNT20 KNHC 110806   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Sun Jan 11 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from   
   the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Gale force N   
   winds have diminished slightly near Tampico, Mexico while they   
   continue S of 22N offshore Veracruz with an earlier ASCAT   
   scatterometer pass showing winds around 45 kt and they could be   
   slightly higher. Gale conditions are expected in Veracruz    
   adjacent waters through Mon. Winds may continue to peak around 45   
   kt near Veracruz early today. Seas will continue to build and    
   likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz today and tonight.   
   The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the    
   Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening.    
   Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into    
   Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the    
   National Hurricane Center at website -   
   https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
   for more details.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near   
   08N13W, then runs southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues    
   from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil at 00.5N50W. Scattered    
   moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 22W and 52.5W.   
      
   ...GULF OF MEXICO...   
      
   A Gale Warning is in effect for the W-central Gulf and western    
   Bay of Campeche. Please read the Special Features section above for details.   
      
   As previously mentioned, a strong cold front extends from the   
   Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong to near    
   gale force northerly winds are behind the front with gale force    
   winds S of 22N, along with rough to very rough seas. A narrow    
   band of showers and thunderstorms is along the front, primarily S   
   of 25N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen on   
   conventional infrared satellite imagery in the eastern Bay of   
   Campeche with a surface trough analyzed along the W coast of the   
   Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the area is under the    
   influence of a surface ridge, that extends from near Bermuda,    
   across Florida into the Gulf region. Gentle to moderate SE to S    
   winds and moderate seas are ahead of the front, with the exception   
   of slight seas within 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula.   
      
   For the forecast, as the front continues to move through the    
   basin winds will peak around 45 kt near into today. Seas will    
   continue to build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of    
   Veracruz today and tonight. The front will weaken and stall from    
   near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of    
   Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually    
   improve Mon night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight    
   to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed.    
   The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds    
   and building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting    
   SE of the basin Thu.    
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over    
   the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America    
   results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central   
   Caribbean. Seas in these waters are in the rough range.    
   Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas    
   prevail. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade    
   wind flow, are moving across the basin producing isolated to    
   scattered passing showers.    
      
   For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will    
   pulse offshore of NW Colombia through tonight due to the pressure    
   gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low    
   pressure over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. After    
   tonight, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there. Pulsing   
   moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the    
   central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and    
   Hispaniola adjacent waters through at least the early part of the    
   week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A decaying   
   cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early this    
   week where it will stall and wash out. Another front may move into   
   the NW basin Thu.   
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A broad 1027 mb high pressure system centered NE of Bermuda near    
   32.5N52.5W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, Florida    
   and the Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N37W to   
   24N49W, with an inverted trough analyzed near 55W from 20N to 29N.   
   Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail across    
   most of the waters N of 20N and W of 50W except weaker right under   
   the ridge axis. An area of showers and thunderstorms is on the E    
   side of the inverted trough. This convective activity covers    
   roughly the waters from 20N to 28N between 50W and 57W. Farther    
   E, high pressure of 1028 mb located near the Madeira Islands    
   dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. The    
   pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in   
   the vicinity of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ is generating a large    
   area of fresh to strong NE to E winds from 07N to 25N E of 35W to   
   the coast of W Africa, along with rough seas. Moderate to fresh    
   trade winds and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the    
   tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and    
   moderate seas are prevalent.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will emerge off the NE   
   Florida coast later today. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough    
   seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from    
   Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the    
   front will become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue.    
   The next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night, reaching   
   from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu night, with    
   associated gale winds possible N of 29N Thu night.   
      
   $$   
   Lewitsky   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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