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   FOUS11 KWBC 110812   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   312 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 14 2026   
      
      
   ...Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, & Mid-Atlantic...   
   Day 1...   
      
   Snow squalls are continuing to race east across the Upper OH Valley   
   this morning that will soon track into the central Appalachians and   
   northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Snowfall totals will   
   most likely only resulting in a dusting, although some localized   
   totals up to 1" are possible. Farther north, snow squalls are also   
   possible across Upstate NY where the base of a 500mb low and   
   falling heights will tap into some Great Lakes moisture to trigger   
   rounds of snow squalls. Despite the minor amounts, rapid   
   accumulations on all surfaces can occur as temperatures in wake of   
   the cold frontal passage rapidly fall. Plus, bursts of snow and   
   gusty winds would lead to dramatic changes from clear visibility to   
   near whiteout conditions. Residents in these areas should be sure   
   to monitor any squalls and be on the lookout for any snow squall   
   warnings as they traverse these regions today. Snow squalls should   
   taper off by Sunday evening northeast PA and the Lower Hudson   
   Valley.   
      
   The heaviest snowfall will occur in the central Appalachians where   
   NWrly upslope flow generates enhanced snowfall rates in the Laurel   
   and Potomac Highlands. High pressure over the MS Valley will   
   quickly build in Sunday evening and snow should taper off by early   
   Monday morning. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-high chances   
   (50-80%) for snowfall totals >4" in the >2,000ft peaks of eastern   
   WV, while western MD and the Laurel Highlands are most likely to   
   receive anywhere from 1-4" of snowfall. The WSSI shows Minor Impact   
   potential, suggesting hazardous travel conditions are likely in   
   affected areas.   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1 & 3...   
      
   Cyclonic flow on the western flank of the departing storm system   
   over southeast Canada will keep some residual lake-enhanced snow   
   showers over the Michigan U.P. and Michigan's L.P.. As snow tapers   
   off over Michigan Sunday afternoon, the heaviest snow will unfold   
   along the Chautauqua Ridge of PA/NY and down wind of Lake Ontario.   
   Lake effect snow bands will weaken as the pressure gradient. WPC   
   probabilities show moderate chances (40-60%) for snowfall totals   
   >4" along the Chautauqua Ridge, while snowfall lingers longest over   
   the Tug Hill thanks their more favorable position east of a fast   
   moving 500mb vorticity maximum. WPC 48-hour probabilities (through   
   Monday night) depict the Tug Hill Plateau with high chances (>70%)   
   for snowfall totals >8" with some locations likely receiving over a   
   foot of snow.   
      
   Following a brief lull in snow on Monday, focus turns to Tuesday as   
   an amplifying shortwave trough in south-central Canada dives south   
   towards the Upper Midwest late Tuesday and into Wednesday. A   
   deepening clipper over Lake Superior will accompany an Arctic front   
   that races south over the Michigan U.P. Tuesday night. Strong low-   
   level CAA looks to reinvigorate the lake effect snow machine over   
   northern WI, the Michigan U.P., and the tip of Michigan's Mitt.   
   Latest WPC probabilities show low-to-moderate chances (30-50%) for   
   snowfall totals over 4" in the Porcupine and Huron Mountains of the   
   Michigan U.P., with a broader footprint of moderate chance   
   probabilities (40-70%) for snowfall >2" from northern WI on east   
   to the the eastern Michigan U.P.. The western Michigan U.P. does   
   feature the best chances for locally heavier totals, depicted by   
   low-chance probabilities (10-30%) in the Porcupine and Huron   
   mountains, as well as the Keweenaw Peninsula. The WSSI-P does show   
   low-to-moderate chances (20-50%) for Minor Impacts over these   
   aforementioned areas Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning.   
      
      
   ...Northern New England...   
   Day 1...   
      
   As the primary storm system over southeast Canada weakens and the   
   coastal low forms over the Gulf of Maine, periods of snow will   
   continue over northern Maine and the Whites through Sunday. Rates   
   will lessen this afternoon and evening, but lingering cyclonic flow   
   on the backside of the coastal storm (located north of Nova Scotia   
   by Sunday night) will keep snow in the forecast Sunday night. Snow   
   tapers off by Monday morning, leaving a swath of 6-12" of snowfall   
   over northern Maine. Farther south, additional ice accumulations   
   under a tenth of an inch are anticipated over Downeast Maine and   
   just north of the Maine coast. The WSSI depicts Minor Impacts over   
   northern Maine, highlighting the likelihood of hazardous travel   
   conditions. A pair of progressive shortwave troughs will bring some   
   additional light snow over the Adirondacks, Greens, Whites, and   
   northern Maine Monday and Tuesday but latest guidance shows   
   generally a coating-2" for these mountain ranges and northern Maine   
   through Tuesday night with some localized amounts approaching 4"   
   possible in the peaks of the Adirondacks.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
      
      
      
   $$   
      
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