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   FOUS11 KWBC 101934   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   234 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   Valid 00Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 00Z Wed Jan 14 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   An upper-level low over northern WI this evening will project   
   healthy PVA over the Great Lakes, as well as strong 700mb Q-vector   
   convergence over northern MI and MI's Upper Peninsula (U.P.). A   
   plume of 700-300mb moisture wrapping around the northern flank of   
   the 700mb low will coincide within a TROWAL that focuses a band of   
   moderate-to-heavy snow over the northern Great Lakes. The storm   
   system will progress east into southern Ontario by Sunday morning   
   and snow will begin to taper off by late Sunday morning, but with   
   lake-effect/enhanced snow continuing early Sunday as a brief surge   
   of northerly flow affects the region. Most guidance shows anywhere   
   from 4-8" of snowfall as far west as the Porcupine Mountains of   
   MI's western U.P. to the Hurons in the heart of the U.P. and much   
   of the eastern U.P.. Farther south, the northern-most locations of   
   Michigan's Mitten are forecast to receive 4-8" of snowfall as well,   
   with localized totals topping 10" possible where lake-enhanced   
   snow bands stick around longest. Snow fall totals of 1-4" are also   
   anticipated along the coast of WI and the western most counties of   
   MI. The WSSI shows Minor Impacts across all these regions,   
   suggesting residents are likely to contend with hazardous travel   
   conditions tonight and into Sunday morning.   
      
   Lastly, westerly flow off Lakes Erie and Ontario will trigger lake   
   effect snow bands over the Chautauqua Ridge and over the Tug Hill   
   Plateau Sunday and into Sunday night. WPC probabilities depict   
   moderate-to- high chances for snowfall >4" through Sunday night.   
   There will be another chance for additional light snow over the   
   Adirondacks and Whites on Monday, but aside from the Tug Hill where   
   up to 6" is possible, snowfall will generally be between a coating   
   to 2" through early Tuesday morning.   
      
      
   ...Northeast...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   On the eastern flank of the approaching Great Lakes storm system, a   
   strong IVT topping 750 kg/m/s and an advancing 925-700mb WAA will   
   provide rich moisture and strong low-level forcing to produce   
   periods of snow and a wintry mix over the interior Northeast and   
   New England. Freezing rain will be most common through tonight in   
   the Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks, Berkshires, and Green   
   Mountains. Latest WPC probabilities show moderate chancres (40-60%)   
   for ice accumulations over one-tenth of an inch in the   
   Adirondacks, Greens, and Berkshires, whereas the rest of the listed   
   areas are generally expected to witness ice accumulations less   
   than one-tenth. Farther north, snow will be the more common   
   precipitation type from the northern Adirondacks and White   
   Mountains through northern Maine. This is due to their locations   
   farther north of the storm track of the primary low in Ontario, and   
   their placement north of a secondary coastal low in the Gulf of   
   Maine. The coastal low will deepen southwest of Nova Scotia on   
   Sunday and support a deformation zone of heavy snow over northern   
   Maine through Sunday night. Snow should finally taper off by Monday   
   morning, although some blowing snow may still be ongoing across   
   Maine. WPC probabilities show high chances (60-80%) for snowfall   
   totals >6" in northern Maine with low chances (10-30%) for some   
   localized areas near Caribou that could receive as much as a foot   
   of snow. Still, given the climatology of snowfall across these   
   northern locations, only Minor Impacts are being depicted from the   
   WSSI.   
      
      
   ...Ohio Valley & Central Appalachians...   
   Days 1-2...   
      
   This storm system over the Great Lakes will also be responsible for   
   other winter related hazards over the Ohio Valley and central   
   Appalachians. Ahead of an approaching 500mb vort max, a sharp low-   
   level cold front and healthy PVA aloft will support the development   
   of snow squalls beginning this afternoon as far west as Iowa that   
   race east towards northern IL and IN this evening. Snow squalls   
   will race east through the OH Valley tonight and reach the Upper   
   OH Valley and central Appalachians by early Sunday morning per the   
   12z CAMs and forecast snow squall parameters. Light accumulations   
   of a coating to 1" are possible, but the concern is rapid   
   reductions in visibilities due to a combination of heavy snow rates   
   and gusty winds. Surface temperatures will also plummet below   
   freezing and could support quickly accumulating snowfall and a   
   flash freeze on roads. Some snow squalls may also reach past the   
   terrain of the central Appalachians and into the Mid-   
   Atlantic/Interior Northeast Sunday afternoon. Motorists should   
   ensure they have a way to receive alerts for snow squall warnings   
   should they be issued and understand the risks of driving during a   
   snow squall.   
      
   Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front and snow squalls reach   
   the central Appalachians Sunday morning, upslope NWrly flow will   
   foster heavy mountains snow in the Potomac and Laurel Highlands   
   Sunday and into Sunday night. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-   
   high chances (40-70%) for snowfall totals >4". Lastly, westerly   
   flow off Lakes Erie and Ontario will trigger lake effect snow bands   
   over the Chautauqua Ridge and over the Tug Hill Plateau Sunday and   
   into Sunday night. WPC probabilities depict moderate-to- high   
   chances for snowfall >4" through Sunday night. There will be   
   another chance for additional light snow over the Adirondacks and   
   Whites on Monday, but aside from the Tug Hill, snowfall will   
   generally be between a coating to 2" through early Tuesday morning.   
      
      
   Snell/Mullinax   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
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