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   FOUS30 KWBC 101805   
   QPFERD   
      
   Excessive Rainfall Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   105 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   Day 1   
   Valid 16Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026   
      
   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS   
   OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE GULF COAST...   
      
   ...16Z Outlook Update...   
   Reference recently issued Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0014   
   for short-term details on flash flood potential from far southeast   
   Louisiana northeastward to western Georgia. Main change to the   
   outlook is to trim on the western and northern edges of the   
   Marginal Risk area where most of the risk of deep convection has   
   ended for the day. Flash flood potential will continue along a   
   linear mesoscale convective complex moving eastward across the   
   region. Some southeastward expansion of the Marginal was made in   
   southeastern Alabama given potential for convection to linger   
   through the afternoon hours - although the overall risk of flash   
   flooding should continue to become progressively more isolated with   
   time and eastward extent.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Previous Discussion...   
      
   Update:   
      
   Expanded the Marginal Risk area southwest from the initial issuance   
   based on radar and satellite trends suggesting the risk of   
   excessive rainfall will persist beyond 12Z. Confined the expanded   
   Marginal risk along the axis of highest dew[point ahead of a cold   
   front moving eastward. Signals still suggest a downward trend   
   fairly early in the day. For additional details...refer to WPC   
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0013.   
      
   Bann   
      
   Previous Discussion...   
      
   Heavy rainfall should be on-goingacross portions of the Southern   
   Appalachians as the Day 1 period. Some of that rainfall will be   
   falling on at least partially saturated ground which has the   
   potential to produce flash flooding. The expectation is that the   
   threat for excessive rainfall should wane by 18Z today as the area   
   of rain moves out of the region.   
      
   Bann   
      
   Day 2   
   Valid 12Z Sun Jan 11 2026 - 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Pereira   
      
   Day 3   
   Valid 12Z Mon Jan 12 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026   
      
   The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less   
   than 5 percent.   
      
   Pereira   
      
      
   Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6cTeHj4W1BW-ho2-w-iUIpkfDQiAXz1uiP7pjPbXK2Ty=   
   4EcS2suCDgBiQ5p73BnYju4IjFlNQxW5uhvU07L__m4I7FM$=20   
   Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6cTeHj4W1BW-ho2-w-iUIpkfDQiAXz1uiP7pjPbXK2Ty=   
   4EcS2suCDgBiQ5p73BnYju4IjFlNQxW5uhvU07L_DqBITjg$=20   
   Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=   
   v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6cTeHj4W1BW-ho2-w-iUIpkfDQiAXz1uiP7pjPbXK2Ty=   
   4EcS2suCDgBiQ5p73BnYju4IjFlNQxW5uhvU07L_pjxGKYo$=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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