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   ACUS11 KWNS 101521   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 101521=20   
   GAZ000-ALZ000-101645-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0020   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0921 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of southern/central AL into far western GA   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...   
      
   Valid 101521Z - 101645Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...The risk of damaging winds and a brief tornado continues   
   across Tornado Watch 03 this morning. A downstream watch is not   
   currently anticipated, though convective and environmental trends   
   are being monitored.   
      
   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KBMX/KMXX depicts a   
   northeast/southwest-oriented QLCS tracking eastward across central   
   and eastern AL. The primary severe risk associated with this   
   activity should remain focused along north/south-oriented parts of   
   the line (i.e., just west of the KMXX radar) -- where around 50 kt   
   of line-orthogonal 0-6 km shear (per KMXX VWP) is favoring more   
   intense updrafts keeping pace with the larger-scale cold pool. Here,   
   moist inflow (upper 60s dewpoints) and ample low-level hodograph   
   size/curvature (around 270 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per KMXX VWP) will   
   continue to support embedded mesovortex/supercell structures and an   
   attendant risk for damaging gusts and a brief tornado or two.   
   The northern portion of the QLCS moving into west-central GA is also   
   taking on a more north/south orientation, and this area may also be   
   locally favorable for damaging gusts and perhaps a brief tornado in   
   the near term.=20   
      
   However, as the QLCS approaches the eastern edge of Tornado Watch   
   03, buoyancy becomes quite limited, and current expectation is for   
   convection to gradually weaken with northward and eastward extent.   
   Therefore, a downstream watch is not currently expected, though   
   convective and environmental trends are being monitored.   
      
   ..Weinman/Smith.. 01/10/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4Y3ELN85GdONQXHDvibdwIWA0p3fDNUndAO32QAlRJsiKOz6xlxmtT_cRiM73jvgwyPiM6mbg=   
   SU_qAG-xOqYu4w2-HU$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...MOB...   
      
   LAT...LON   32068715 32628648 33458558 33828509 33858478 33688457   
               33278464 32918495 32568515 32158561 32018590 31828639   
               31738690 31808710 32068715=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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