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   075    
   AXNT20 KNHC 100846   
   TWDAT    
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion   
   NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL   
   1215 UTC Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America   
   Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South   
   America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the   
   Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite   
   imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.   
      
   Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC.   
      
   ...SPECIAL FEATURES...   
      
   Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Strong to near gale force NE to E   
   winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to   
   the gradient between building high pressure N of the region and    
   low pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force    
   until around sunrise this morning. Seas to 12 ft will occur    
   within these winds. After Sun night, fresh to locally strong    
   winds will prevail there.   
      
   Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off   
   the coast of Texas this morning. Strong to near-gale force N    
   winds following the front will rapidly reach gale force near    
   Tampico late this morning and afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent   
   waters this evening through Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near   
   Veracruz. Seas will quickly build and likely peak at around 21 ft   
   offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. The front will weaken and   
   stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the    
   eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf    
   will gradually improve Mon night into Tue.   
      
   Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National    
   Hurricane Center at website -   
   https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml   
    for more details.   
      
   ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...   
      
   The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea    
   near 10N14W and then continues to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from    
   06N18W to 04N35W and to 01N50W near the coast of Brazil. Widely    
   scattered moderate convection is observed mainly south of 08N.   
      
   ...GULF OF Mexico...   
      
   A Gale Warning is in effect for the W-central Gulf and western    
   Bay of Campeche area. Please read the Special Features section    
   above for details.   
      
   A subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends southwestward   
   to the Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient between this ridge   
   and lower pressures associated with a cold front over the southern   
   United States result in moderate to fresh SE-S winds over much of   
   the basin, especially east of 96W. Seas in these waters are 3-6    
   ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas    
   prevail. Areas of dense fog are present within 20 nm of shore of   
   SE Louisiana to nearshore of the western Florida Panhandle.   
      
   For the forecast, moderate to fresh SE winds will diminish this    
   morning as a cold front near the Texas coast enters the basin.    
   Strong to near- gale force N winds following the front will    
   rapidly reach gale force near Tampico late this morning and    
   afternoon, and in Veracruz adjacent waters this evening through    
   Mon. Winds may peak around 45 kt near Veracruz. Seas will quickly    
   build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz Sun and   
   Sun night. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba   
   to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon    
   evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon    
   night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate    
   seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next    
   cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and    
   building seas by Wed night.    
      
   ...CARIBBEAN SEA...   
      
   A Gale Warning is in effect the waters off NW Colombia. Please    
   read the Special Features section above for details.   
      
   The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over    
   the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America    
   results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central   
   Caribbean. This was confirmed by earlier scatterometer satellite    
   passes. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, moderate to    
   fresh easterly winds and moderate seas prevail, except locally   
   fresh to strong in the Lee of Cuba, across and through the   
   approach to the Windward Passage, and offshore southern Haiti. No   
   significant convection is noted across the Caribbean basin.   
      
   For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will    
   pulse offshore of NW Colombia through Sun night due to the    
   gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low    
   pressure over northern Colombia, except minimal gale force until    
   around sunrise today. Seas to 12 ft will occur within these winds.   
   After Sun night, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail    
   there. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in    
   the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and    
   Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely    
   pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and S of Hispaniola    
   through Sat night, with similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba    
   early today and Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds    
   will prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of    
   Honduras this morning. A decaying cold front may move into or near   
   the far NW Caribbean early next week where it will stall and wash out.   
      
   ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...   
      
   A broad 1028 mb high pressure system centered northwest of Bermuda   
   near 34N66W dominates much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W.   
   A cold front extends from near 31N49W to 26N60W, where it becomes   
   a frontal trough to 25N65W to 28N74W. Moderate to fresh NE-E    
   winds and moderate seas are found west of a line from 31N50W to    
   Puerto Rico. Meanwhile, the central and eastern tropical Atlantic    
   waters are dominates by a 1032 mb high pressure system located    
   northwest of Madeira. A tight pressure gradient forces fresh to    
   strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across much of    
   the waters east of 44W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and    
   moderate seas are prevalent.   
      
   For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure building and sliding    
   eastward in the wake of a cold front that extends from 27N55W to    
   26N59W continuing as a frontal trough to 25N65W and 28N74W will    
   support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters E of the    
   Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank, and the approaches to the Windward   
   Passage through Sun, with locally strong winds near the Windward    
   Passage as the front washes out. A new cold front will emerge off    
   the NE Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas    
   will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to   
   the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will    
   become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue. The next    
   cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night.   
      
   $$   
   Lewitsky   
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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