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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0014   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   909 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana, southern   
   Mississippi, southern/central Alabama, and western/northern   
   Georgia   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely   
      
   Valid 101354Z - 101954Z   
      
   Summary...Flash flood potential continues across southern   
   Mississippi this morning.  This threat will shift eastward while   
   gradually becoming more isolated through 19Z/1p Central.   
      
   Discussion...Recent radar mosaic imagery depicts an extensive,   
   linear convective complex extending from near Gadsden, AL through   
   Birmingham, AL and southwestward to near Hammond, LA.  Convection   
   has trended toward more forward propagation over the past several   
   hours, but remain capable of 1-2 inch/hr rain rates - especially   
   across southern Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana where   
   forward motions are slower (around 20-30 knots) and quality   
   pre-convective moisture exists.  The storms are in an environment   
   characterized by moderate surface-based buoyancy (around 1000-1500   
   J/kg - highest from central Alabama through the New Orleans area)   
   and 1.4-1.6 inch PW values - both characteristic of typical   
   profiles supporting deep moist convection and heavy rainfall   
   rates.  Additionally, some of the activity was falling on areas of   
   southern Mississippi that have received 5-8 inches of rainfall   
   over the past 24 hours (particularly near Hattiesburg, Waynesboro,   
   MS and surrounding areas).  FFGs are near zero in those areas,   
   supporting an imminent and ongoing flash flood threat there.=20   
   Farther northeast and southeast of the Hattiesburg area, FFGs are   
   a bit higher (around 1 inch/hr in Alabama - closer to 2-3   
   inches/hr in Louisiana), suggestive of more scattered flash flood   
   potential in those area in the short term.   
      
   The forward-propagating nature of this complex will result in   
   storms gradually moving out of the most sensitive, water-logged   
   areas of the discussion area through the morning and early   
   afternoon.  The downstream airmass is still supportive of   
   occasional areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates, promoting flash   
   flood potential especially in urban and sensitive areas of the   
   discussion area.  Flash flooding remains most likely in   
   southeastern Mississippi this morning, with a lesser-concentrated   
   risk throughout the remainder of the discussion area.   
      
   Cook   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!8Hlcy_JkIVC_spif7StIjfVMqKja9sq8Gg9rt_MmTn0QKzEocsUt4og8AxJVfmfAPSGm=   
   Rp1xHZW4-kpUSY8JUQ28y5o$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...LCH...LIX...MOB...TAE...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34318457 33968412 32578415 31058531 30358760=20   
               29228947 29239063 29609114 31409039 32788822=20   
               34228567=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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