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   ACUS11 KWNS 101305   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 101304=20   
   ALZ000-101500-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0019   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0704 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   Areas affected...parts of southeastern MS and southwestern through   
   central AL   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...   
      
   Valid 101304Z - 101500Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...The risk for additional tornadoes, perhaps including a   
   strong tornado, and damaging wind gusts will continue at least   
   another couple of hours with an organizing cluster of storms   
   approaching Montgomery AL and areas to the west and north through   
   8-10 AM CST.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Stronger convection along a pre-frontal confluence   
   zone, generally aligned with a developing 40-45 kt southwesterly 850   
   mb jet axis, has evolved into an organizing east-northeastward   
   advancing quasi-linear convective system.  This appears supported by   
   southeasterly low-level inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer   
   air characterized by CAPE up to 1000 J/kg.  This air mass, including   
   surface dew points near 70F, extends in a corridor across the   
   Mississippi/Alabama Gulf coasts through central Alabama, between   
   Montgomery and Birmingham, and appears likely to maintain strong   
   storms at least several more hours.   
      
   The Rapid Refresh suggests that the low-level jet may strengthen   
   further while nosing toward the southern Appalachians through   
   14-16Z, perhaps including southerly 850 mb flow up to 50 kts as far   
   south as the Montgomery AL vicinity.  The most notable convection,   
   including a sustained supercell which earlier may have produced a   
   tornado, and has now evolved into a bowing structure in radar   
   reflectivities with a broadening circulation on its northern end,   
   appears to coincide with one low-level speed maximum.  This has   
   crossed into Alabama and may continue to pose the most prominent   
   potential for additional tornadoes and/or damaging wind gusts as it   
   approaches areas near and northwest of Montgomery AL through mid   
   morning.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/10/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!7Xo3X772X28on78jeXnEGOlpGTLXMCDy848H0xhdIfh_Zm-Gphk4zKKG7iXL4vvSJSLkJ-1KP=   
   ByK02_TFK5fjhuzTWM$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...   
      
   LAT...LON   32398783 32998676 32828630 32348649 31928741 31728814   
               31888812 32398783=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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