TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168425.weather@1:2320/105 2dc9d613   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   AWUS01 KWNH 100830   
   FFGMPD   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101330-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0013   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   329 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Eastern Louisiana...Southern Mississippi   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 100830Z - 101330Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Pre-frontal confluence band activating within narrow   
   remaining instability axis in proximity to moisture axis enough to   
   support 1.75-2"/hr rates.  Cell motions support some short-term   
   repeating though already saturated/flooded areas.  As such,   
   localized flash flooding is likely to occur again through early   
   morning.   
      
   DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um and Regional RADAR depict an area of   
   increasing convective development along a low level confluence   
   line extending from near Marsh Island across Baton Rouge, LA   
   toward McComb MS before intersecting with a broader west to east   
   rainfall reinforced outflow or effective isentropic boundary.  RAP   
   analysis depicts a narrow instability axis with 1500-1750 J/kg of   
   MLCAPE and generally aligns with the western edge of slightly   
   higher low level moisture where Tds climb above 70 a few degrees.=20   
   VWP also note an increase in low level wind speeds toward 40+kts   
   and remain fairly unidirectional through 500mb well ahead of the   
   frontal zone.   As such, there remains a favorable training   
   orientation for the convection. SPC MCD 18 alludes to favorable   
   shear environment for some rotating cells as well, further   
   increasingly moisture flux convergence allowing for rates to reach   
   1.75-2"/hr potentially. Upstream cold front is starting to press   
   eastward, but there remains a few hours of potential training of   
   these cells.  This matches most closely to the 00z ARW solution as   
   well as recent RAP runs though other rapid refresh guidance   
   provides some increased confidence to this evolution.   
      
   Unfortunately, the orientation appears to intersect locations that   
   had received over 4" yesterday afternoon.  This has resulted in   
   compromised FFG values below 2"/hr for solid portion of the MPD   
   area of concern and with 1-2 hours of training spots of additional   
   2-3" are probable and would likely result in localized flash   
   flooding to occur once again across far northern East Louisiana   
   into Southern MS.  Combine this with any remaining convective   
   cells along the cold front passing through by 14-15z, consider the   
   potential for flash flooding to once again be likely across this   
   area into the early morning hours.=20=20   
      
   Gallina   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!4aacJg2RqFJ5V8-2vwdZ2lKcSM8fYZxP72KCyyCnUC5vlx1yoCazj4zpzWsinq-zZNFh=   
   viusEplqvv9jnVIymFAi_pU$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...JAN...LIX...MOB...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   33058867 32998809 32558766 31878777 31448828=20   
               31178870 30878924 30549032 30359117 30689162=20   
               31319135 31909091 32838963=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360   
   SEEN-BY: 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 275 300 307 317 400   
   SEEN-BY: 229/426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111   
   SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426