TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168422.weather@1:2320/105 2dc9d247   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   FOUS11 KWBC 100814   
   QPFHSD   
      
   Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   314 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   Valid 12Z Sat Jan 10 2026 - 12Z Tue Jan 13 2026   
      
      
   ...Great Lakes...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   An upper-level low over northern MN this morning will project   
   healthy PVA over the Great Lakes, as well as strong 700mb Q-vector   
   convergence over northern MI and MI's Upper Peninsula (U.P.). A   
   plume of 700-300mb moisture wrapping around the northern flank of   
   the 700mb low will coincide within a TROWAL that focuses a band of   
   moderate-to-heavy snow over the northern Great Lakes. The storm   
   system will progress east into southern Ontario by Sunday morning   
   and snow will begin to taper off by late Sunday morning. Most   
   guidance shows anywhere from 4-8" of snowfall as far west as the   
   Porcupine Mountains of MI's western U.P. to the Hurons in the heart   
   of the U.P. and much of the eastern U.P.. Farther south, the   
   northern-most locations of Michigan's Mitten are forecast to   
   receive 4-8" of snowfall as well, with localized totals topping 10"   
   possible where lake-enhanced snow bands stick around longest. Snow   
   fall totals of 1-4" are also anticipated along the coast of WI and   
   the western most counties of MI. The WSSI shows Minor Impacts   
   across all these regions, suggesting residents are likely to   
   contend with hazardous travel conditions Saturday night and into   
   Sunday morning.   
      
   In wake of this storm system, two more Canadian clipper systems   
   will race towards the Great Lakes. The first brings light snowfall   
   to northern MN Sunday afternoon and then into the northern Great   
   Lakes Sunday night. It is moisture starved and progressive, so   
   totals will generally range between a coating-3". As that upper-   
   level shortwave trough heads for the Northeast on Monday, another   
   clipper over the Canadian Prairies will track into the Upper   
   Midwest Monday night. This system has a little more moisture to   
   work with, but boundary layer temperatures are milder and may   
   result in more of a snow/rain mix on Tuesday. Both wintry setups   
   will be closely monitored, but snowfall totals are likely to   
   produce minor snowfall totals rather than highly impactful amounts   
   at this time.   
      
      
   ...Northeast, Ohio Valley, & Central Appalachians...   
   Days 1-3...   
      
   On the eastern flank of the approaching Great Lakes storm system, a   
   strong IVT topping 750 kg/m/s and an advancing 925-700mb WAA will   
   provide rich moisture and strong low-level forcing to produce   
   periods of snow and a wintry mix over the interior Northeast.   
   Freezing rain will be most common today in northern PA, the   
   Poconos, Catskills, Adirondacks, Berkshires, and Green Mountains.   
   Latest WPC probabilities show moderate chancres (40-60%) for ice   
   accumulations over one-tenth of an inch in the Adirondacks, Greens,   
   and Berkshires, whereas the rest of the listed areas are generally   
   expected to witness ice accumulations less than one-tenth. Farther   
   north, snow will be the more common precipitation type from the   
   northern Adirondacks and White Mountains through northern Maine.   
   This is due to their locations farther north of the storm track of   
   the primary low in Ontario, and their placement north of a   
   secondary coastal low in the Gulf of Maine. The coastal low will   
   deepen southwest of Nova Scotia on Sunday and support a   
   deformation zone of heavy snow over northern Maine through Sunday   
   night. Snow should finally taper off by Monday morning, although   
   some blowing snow may still be ongoing across Maine. WPC   
   probabilities show high chances (>70%) for snowfall totals >6" in   
   northern Maine with low chances (10-30%) for some localized areas   
   near Caribou that could receive as much as a foot of snow.   
      
   This storm system over the Great Lakes will also be responsible for   
   other winter related hazards over the Ohio Valley and central   
   Appalachians. Ahead of an approaching 500mb vort max, a sharp low-   
   level cold front and healthy PVA aloft will support the development   
   of snow squalls Saturday afternoon as far west as Iowa that race   
   east towards northern IL and IN Saturday evening. Snow squalls will   
   race east through the OH Valley Saturday night and reach the Upper   
   OH Valley and central Appalachians by early Sunday morning. Light   
   accumulations of a coating to 1" are possible, but the concern is   
   rapid reductions in visibilities due to a combination of heavy snow   
   rates and gusty winds. Surface temperatures will also plummet below   
   freezing and could support quickly accumulating snowfall on roads.   
   Motorists should ensure they have a way to receive alerts for snow   
   squall warnings should they be issued.   
      
   Meanwhile, as the aforementioned cold front and snow squalls reach   
   the central Appalachians Sunday morning, upslope NWrly flow will   
   foster heavy mountains snow in the Potomac and Laurel Highlands   
   Sunday and into Sunday night. WPC probabilities show moderate-to-   
   high chances for snowfall totals >2", but there is a lower chance   
   scenario (10-30%) where the peaks of the Appalachians in eastern WV   
   and western MD receive as much as 4-6" of snow. Lastly, westerly   
   flow off Lakes Erie and Ontario will trigger lake effect snow bands   
   over the Chautauqua Ridge and over the Tug Hill Plateau Sunday and   
   into Sunday night. WPC probabilities depict moderate-to-high   
   chances for snowfall >4" through Sunday night. There will be   
   another chance for additional light snow over the Adirondacks and   
   Whites on Monday, but aside from the Tug Hill, snowfall will   
   generally be between a coating to 2" through early Tuesday morning.   
      
      
   Mullinax   
      
      
      
   $$   
      
   = = =   
   To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to   
   https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email   
   Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.   
      
   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)   
   SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302   
   SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50   
   SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1 6 360   
   SEEN-BY: 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 275 300 307 317 400   
   SEEN-BY: 229/426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003 291/111   
   SEEN-BY: 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364 341/66   
   SEEN-BY: 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26 2320/0   
   SEEN-BY: 2320/105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35   
   PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426