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   ACUS11 KWNS 100804   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 100804=20   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-101000-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0018   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   0204 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   Areas affected...parts of south central Mississippi and adjacent   
   portions of western Alabama   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...   
      
   Valid 100804Z - 101000Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...The evolution of a supercell or two with increasing   
   potential for tornadoes, perhaps a strong one, east of Jackson   
   toward the Meridian MS vicinity through 3-5 AM CST.  A new tornado   
   will probably be needed within the next hour or two.   
      
   DISCUSSION...There has been at least some recent increase in   
   thunderstorm development within the moist warm sector, near/north of   
   the McComb vicinity, where surface dew points near 70F appear to be   
   supporting moderate boundary-layer based CAPE as high as 1500 J/kg.=20   
   This appears to be occurring as a weak surface low migrates eastward   
   into west central Mississippi near Jackson.=20=20   
      
   During the next few hours, models suggest that strengthening   
   southwesterly flow around the 850 mb level (to around 40 kt) may   
   contribute to enlarging low-level hodographs along a remnant surface   
   baroclinic zone southeast of Jackson into areas near/south of   
   Meridian, coincident with boundary-layer destabilization associated   
   with a slow northward advection of the warmer and more moist warm   
   sector air.  It appears this environment could become conducive to   
   substantive further thunderstorm intensification and organization,   
   including the evolution of a supercell or two accompanied by   
   increasing potential for tornadoes, perhaps a strong one.   
      
   ..Kerr.. 01/10/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!4h8N7GbXbC-1OKlVJC4n7KUQ2VUdoCe1hMtM2aRDrgZ6A35NekXqpvSpuoMHXGPq3SRaSgktR=   
   HPYIY37HuG5aXV5DZk$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MOB...JAN...   
      
   LAT...LON   32629018 32848928 32828793 32138807 31638894 31519040   
               32089058 32629018=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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