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   GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-101100-   
      
   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0012   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1236 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Southeast MS...Central AL...Northwestern GA...   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 100535Z - 101100Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Rainfall intensity is reducing though there remains a   
   continued favorable training environment and persistent warm air   
   advection for additional upstream development to maintain training   
   through the overnight period.   Already wetted/saturated soils   
   with additional 2-3" may result in localized possible flash   
   flooding.   
      
   DISCUSSION...04z Surface analysis depicts main synoptic front   
   bisects Middle TN into eastern MS before it starts to bend back   
   westward across central MS to near Vicksburg and along I-20 under   
   the influence of the upstream DPVA from the shearing upper level   
   trough and strong 130kt+ jet over the Ozark Plateau.  Still, the   
   influence of the initial shortwave and atmospheric river/stream   
   out of the western Gulf yesterday continues to slide northeastward   
   across central AL toward the Southern Appalachians later this   
   morning.  VWP shows broad 25-40kt LLJ from SE LA across AL into   
   western GA; which aligns with the core of enhanced moisture per   
   CIRA LPW sfc-850 and 850-700mb layers with .75-.9" and .4-.5" in   
   each layer respectively.  RAP analysis and GPS network confirm   
   1.75" core in central AL sliding northward.   
      
   The flow through this layer remains strong and nearly   
   unidirectional from 850 upward to support a narrow training   
   profile for ongoing/weakening convection and anything that would   
   redevelop upstream.  The surface to boundary layer does still have   
   some additional southerly component and surface   
   analysis/instability axis denotes an effective rain-cooled   
   isentropic ascent plain/front extending from the main front near   
   Vicksburg to Jackson to south of Meridian to near Montgomery.  As   
   such mildly unstable air with 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE south of the   
   boundary will isentropically ascend to provide some scattered   
   thunderstorm activity upstream. This should help to maintain some   
   training profile across central AL with occasional 1.5-1.75"/hr   
   rates and localized 2-3" streaks, eventually extending toward W GA   
   with slowly diminishing rates and therefore totals.   
      
   However, given the prolonged nature, short term FFG values may not   
   be exceeded except for areas already compromised across Southeast   
   MS and far SW AL and urban centers along the way.  However, add   
   this 1-3" totals to the 1-2" totals already fallen across AL into   
   GA and longer term exceedance is possible, suggesting localized   
   flash flooding conditions remain possible through the overnight   
   period into early morning.   
      
   Gallina   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!435-j2SzxdSRBUw-cE0OMsONPir6gcMUx4lDPm-ZmspqOtZkTROIgK4FzQEfJoUP2Gal=   
   mFisCP7jRcMnc0sYzE9_uBw$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...JAN...MOB...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34408506 34308429 33678411 33238444 32488549=20   
               31648728 31158841 31198950 31919077 32649045=20   
               33158827 33538722 34128572=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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