TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168417.weather@1:2320/105 2dc9ac64   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
   CHRS: ASCII 1   
   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS01 KWNS 100532   
   SWODY1   
   SPC AC 100531   
      
   Day 1 Convective Outlook   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1131 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z   
      
   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF   
   THE CENTRAL GULF STATES AND SOUTHEAST...   
      
   ...SUMMARY...   
   A few severe thunderstorms are forecast across the central Gulf   
   Coast and Southeast.   
      
   ...Central Gulf Coast/Southeast...   
      
   Split stream currently noted over the CONUS will gradually evolve   
   into a deep long-wave trough over the eastern U.S. by the end of the   
   period. Latest water-vapor imagery supports this with a pronounced   
   short-wave trough digging southeast into the upper OH Valley, and a   
   less amplified short wave ejecting northeast toward the lower OH   
   Valley. Strong large-scale height falls will spread across the upper   
   Midwest/OH Valley region during the day, but much weaker   
   falls/forcing will be noted across low latitudes.   
      
   Late this evening, modified Gulf air mass had returned to much of   
   the lower MS Valley where upper 60s-lower 70s dew points are   
   observed south of the synoptic warm front. Considerable amount of   
   convection has been noted along/north of this boundary and this   
   should prevent appreciable air mass recovery across the northern   
   Gulf states through the period. Over the last few hours, back edge   
   of the convection along the cold front has gradually increased in   
   intensity across southeast TX. This front will advance east into MS   
   by the start of the period, then shift across AL/northwestern GA by   
   early evening as the weak surface low lifts into the middle   
   Atlantic.   
      
   One area of concern is the amount of convection currently observed   
   across the northern Gulf states. This may suppress the northern   
   extent of severe potential a bit more south than currently reflected   
   in this forecast. If buoyancy can not return to this region then an   
   adjustment may be warranted at 13z. Otherwise, strong shear and   
   seasonally moist boundary layer suggest a risk for tornadoes with   
   any supercells that develop across this region. The primary concern   
   for wind/tornadoes will be through early afternoon, after which the   
   LLJ will shift well northeast of this area and forcing/low-level   
   shear will weaken.   
      
   ..Darrow/Lyons.. 01/10/2026   
      
   $$   
      
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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