TZUTC: 0000   
   MSGID: 168416.weather@1:2320/105 2dc9a6b0   
   PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0   
   BBSID: CAPCITY2   
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   FORMAT: flowed   
   ACUS11 KWNS 100508   
   SWOMCD   
   SPC MCD 100507=20   
   ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-100730-   
      
   Mesoscale Discussion 0017   
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK   
   1107 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Areas affected...far eastern Texas across Louisiana and into central   
   Mississippi   
      
   Concerning...Tornado Watch 2...   
      
   Valid 100507Z - 100730Z   
      
   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 2 continues.   
      
   SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms remain possible tonight in and   
   close to the watch area. Locally damaging wind and a tornado or two   
   cannot be ruled out through Saturday morning.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows low pressure over northwest LA,   
   with a cold front draped across far eastern TX. A warm front extends   
   across northern LA and into central MS, with a very moist air mass   
   across the warm sector. Lower 70s F dewpoints exist across much of   
   southern LA and southeast TX, and this air mass should continue to   
   gradually spread north.   
      
   Currently, the strongest cells are along or even behind the cold   
   front in TX, although isolated cells also exist along and north of   
   the warm front. Recent convective trends suggest the activity   
   approaching the Sabine Valley may become a bit better organized over   
   the next few hours as cooling aloft gradually shifts east. In   
   addition, southerly low-level winds ahead of this line and secondary   
   pressure fall time after 09Z may yield a increased chance of   
   isolated supercells across LA/MS well ahead of the cold front. Any   
   isolated cells will have tornado potential as 0-1 SRH remains in   
   excess of 100 to 150 m2/s2.   
      
   ..Jewell.. 01/10/2026   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=   
   g!9_J4ttYyjr5q0z-ADEvqR9qZv6DCOD2iMwu2sEjDO8I3LqoyYmZjGFySKIwUImsuTdQDGCftt=   
   vupZ9nWA712bbFokx8$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...   
      
   LAT...LON   30958882 30419160 29909522 30069531 30409512 31869384   
               32249357 32719062 32598932 32088841 31238843 30958882=20   
      
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH   
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN   
      
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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   --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux   
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