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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0011   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   1142 PM EST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Southeast to East Texas...Western and Northern   
   Louisiana...   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 100445Z - 101000Z   
      
   SUMMARY...Strengthening scattered to widely scattered   
   thunderstorms capable of 1.5"/hr and localized 2-3" totals given   
   some short-duration training potential for flanking cell   
   development.  Greater soil saturation/lower FFG, north and   
   proximity to Houston metro/urban runoff to south pose localized   
   possible incident or two for flash flooding through overnight   
   period.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and 10.3um IR loop depict a few   
   stronger thunderstorm clusters extending from near Victoria   
   northeastward across Southeast TX toward a weak surface low near   
   KOCH.  East of the low, a west to east stationary front crosses   
   near I-20 and recently saturated upper soil profiles given broad   
   1-2" totals throughout the day.  Surface to boundary layer   
   southerly flow continues to advect upper 60s/low 70s Tds with   
   modestly unstable air mass in the warm sector with MLCAPE values   
   remaining at or above 1000 J/kg with spots of 2000 J/kg near the   
   Upper TX coast.  Upper level jet streak continues to expand and   
   strengthen across the Ozark Plateau though broad right entrance   
   ascent is providing strong divergence aloft and supporting the   
   slightly backed and 20-25kts of low-level jet flow to obliquely   
   intersect the slowly eastward advancing cold front.=20   
      
   While mid to upper levels remain dry, the anomalous moisture   
   remains though 700mb with over 1.5" and spots nearing 1.75" within   
   the warm sector.  This results in solid moisture flux convergence   
   and solid instability to maintain/expand the convective coverage   
   though likely still in a scattered nature over the next few hours.   
    Flux convergence is supporting moderately efficient rainfall   
   production with 1.5-1.75"/hr rates. Forward progression will   
   continue to be a limiting factor toward 2-3" streaks of rainfall   
   totals across the area of concern, especially as the core of the   
   jet (and therefore the right entrance divergence) shift   
   northeastward and direct circulation allows for faster progression   
   of the cold front through the TX Coastal Plain.=20   
      
   Overall totals are not a tremendous concern across the Coastal   
   Plain, with a solid exception of the hydrophobic urban/suburban   
   corridor of Houston.  The sheer rates would be the greatest   
   potential and even slight probability of localized 2"/hr rates may   
   be sufficient to result in localized flooding concerns.  Further   
   north across the northern Piney Woods of E TX into Northern LA,   
   the recent rainfall will locally result in above normal runoff,   
   and compromised FFG values of less than 2"/hr and 3"/3hr remain   
   capable of being exceeded again.  As such, a few incidents of   
   localized flash flooding will remain possible through the   
   overnight period as the front presses through from west to east.=20   
      
   Gallina   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!5e45rP2JunIuVcPEhh0jU35Epu8JkIn1Nkw9iyBplNfFJrna5KVV_1R27PiPw8ZbzmRa=   
   2_o7E4DnM3kcR0t4xyG5GNM$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...HGX...JAN...LCH...SHV...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   32959190 32879118 32299104 31379165 30549283=20   
               29959426 29399553 29649617 30229584 30649558=20   
               31419478 32189422 32789339 32919271=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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