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   Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0010   
   NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD   
   846 PM EST Fri Jan 09 2026   
      
   Areas affected...Parts of Southern MS into western-central AL   
      
   Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible   
      
   Valid 100145Z - 100545Z   
      
   SUMMARY...A relatively narrow corridor of cell training will   
   maintain the potential for isolated areas of flash flooding   
   through the remainder of the evening. Additional rainfall totals   
   of 2 to 3 inches are expected across many locales within this   
   corridor through midnight CST, though isolated amounts of 4-5   
   inches areas are expected.   
      
   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES-E longwave IR imagery showed a well   
   developed, rather expansive west-to-east Warm Conveyor Belt (WCB)   
   of higher/colder cloud tops from northern Mexico northeast through   
   eastern TX and into the Mid-South and TN Valley. Robust  upper   
   trough over the southern Rockies-High Plains and attendant upper   
   level jet streak on the eastern flank is helping to enhance the   
   deep-layer forcing and low-level frontogenesis ahead of the   
   approaching cold front, which will coincide with the boost in the   
   low-level moisture transport from the Gulf as 850 mb winds   
   increase to 30-40 kts later this evening.   
      
   Meanwhile, a narrow axis of higher deep-layer CAPE (1000-1500+   
   J/Kg) will also nudge northeastward from the Gulf Coast into   
   southern MS and southern-central AL, coinciding with PWs climbing   
   between 1.8 and 2.0" in the expanding pre-frontal convective   
   environment. Multiple, quasi-linear convective segments will tend   
   to train within this narrowing corridor of more optimal   
   instability and available PW. The mesoscale (CAM) guidance has   
   struggled a bit handling the current setup, compared to the radar   
   mosaic over the past few hours. Recent HRRR and RRFS runs have   
   caught up a bit however. High res ensembles (HREF and RRFS)   
   probabilities of hourly rainfall rates exceeding 1-2" are a bit   
   lower than reality (especially the 2"/hr probabilities),   
   indicative that the event may only just now be getting better   
   handled by the guidance. Much of the CAM guidance show the   
   heaviest rainfall south of BHM through midnight CST, however with   
   notably lower FFG over northeast MS and northern AL, it would not   
   take as much rainfall to cause additional runoff issues,   
   especially considering what has already fallen.   
      
   Hurley   
      
   ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=   
   DZ3fjg!6j7wsjsHr8ga0tgXnpJ4FOHJWysiSmMEDaIqyT_p8lovh63Ekd-FfvWNITKFWu9QqJ3u=   
   x9ZuW_d7bZj_84atsYa08l0$  for graphic product...   
      
   ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...LIX...MOB...   
      
   ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...   
      
   LAT...LON   34198699 32868611 31658789 30709029 31699073=20   
               33308893=20   
      
   =3D =3D =3D   
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